Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.48
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.01
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ajax (Local): 65.14%; Heerenveen (Visitante): 15.39%; Empate: 19.46%. Para Heerenveen (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.50. 10 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.01, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.90%.
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.31%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 7.01I 14.27%NM 13.81%EV +7.90%E +1.13%K +1.31%G +0.104% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.88%EV -5.21%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.73%EV -3.59%E -2.42%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.41%EV +3.90%E +0.577%K +0.678%G +0.026% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.73%EV -3.59%E -2.42%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.41%EV +3.90%E +0.577%K +0.678%G +0.026% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.19%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.22%EV +3.90%E +0.577%K +0.678%G +0.026% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.59%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 13:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 13:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -8.52%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -8.52%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.48%EV -4.24%E -2.88%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 6.47I 15.46%NM 14.88%EV -0.413%E -0.064%K -0.076%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.64%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.40%EV -4.24%E -2.88%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -1.49%E -0.233%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.81%EV -11.44%E -2.51%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 13:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.40%EV -4.24%E -2.88%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -1.49%E -0.233%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.81%EV -11.44%E -2.51%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 13:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.70%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 11:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.19%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 11:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.23%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -8.52%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 14:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 14:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 14:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -12.41%E -2.76%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 13:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 13:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 13:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 13:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.71%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -3.59%E -2.42%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.93%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.04%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 14:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 13:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 14:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-16 11:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.13%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-16 14:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-14 15:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -8.15%E -5.78%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -8.15%E -5.78%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -18.25%E -4.35%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -11.40%E -8.39%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -11.40%E -8.39%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.91%EV -10.10%E -7.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.18%EV -9.19%E -1.56%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -12.41%E -2.76%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -10.73%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -10.73%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -10.73%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.50%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-16 11:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.25%EV -10.10%E -7.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.80%EV -12.27%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.76%EV -8.15%E -5.78%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -15.34%E -2.79%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -15.34%E -2.79%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-16 13:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 64.44%EV -9.45%E -6.80%K -24.23%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.90%EV -18.42%E -3.48%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-16 14:29 |
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.66% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.43% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.43% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.43% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.32% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.86% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.81% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.58% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.32% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.11% | 1.5% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |