Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax v Heerenveen

Início: 2026-08-16 14:45 UTC

Final: Ajax 2–2 Heerenveen

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

55 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax (Local)

Previsão 65.14%1.54odd justa
EV -3.59%
Vantagem -2.42%
Kelly -7.47%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.48

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
63.81%65.07%65.14%66.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.361.431.441.4873.53%69.84%69.44%67.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Heerenveen (Visitante)

Previsão 15.39%6.50odd justa
EV +7.90%
Vantagem +1.13%
Kelly +1.31%
Crescimento +0.104%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.01

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.81%15.37%15.35%16.90%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.306.126.007.0118.87%16.33%16.67%14.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 19.46%5.14odd justa
EV -2.68%
Vantagem -0.536%
Kelly -0.669%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
18.64%19.55%19.51%21.28%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.204.694.755.0023.81%21.30%21.05%20.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Ajax (Local): 65.14%; Heerenveen (Visitante): 15.39%; Empate: 19.46%. Para Heerenveen (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.50. 10 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.01, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +7.90%.

Odds das casas de apostas (55 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.31%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000%7.01I 14.27%NM 13.81%EV +7.90%E +1.13%K +1.31%G +0.104%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.88%EV -5.21%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-16 14:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.73%EV -3.59%E -2.42%K -7.47%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.41%EV +3.90%E +0.577%K +0.678%G +0.026%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-16 14:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.73%EV -3.59%E -2.42%K -7.47%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.41%EV +3.90%E +0.577%K +0.678%G +0.026%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-16 14:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.19%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.22%EV +3.90%E +0.577%K +0.678%G +0.026%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.59%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-16 14:34
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 13:18
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 13:19
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 14:34
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -8.52%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -8.52%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:40
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV +0.049%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 14:35
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.48%EV -4.24%E -2.88%K -9.02%G +0.000%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.88%EV -0.413%E -0.064%K -0.076%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.64%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-16 14:40
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.40%EV -4.24%E -2.88%K -9.02%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -1.49%E -0.233%K -0.276%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.81%EV -11.44%E -2.51%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 13:14
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.40%EV -4.24%E -2.88%K -9.02%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -1.49%E -0.233%K -0.276%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.81%EV -11.44%E -2.51%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 13:14
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.70%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 11:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.19%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 11:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.23%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -8.52%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 14:20
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 14:19
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 14:20
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -3.80%E -0.608%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -12.41%E -2.76%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 13:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 13:19
BetUS🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 13:19
BetAnything🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.30%EV -4.89%E -3.35%K -10.63%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 13:20
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.71%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -6.11%E -1.00%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 14:34
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -3.59%E -2.42%K -7.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 14:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.93%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 14:29
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.04%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 14:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:35
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.68%E -0.536%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 13:20
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:29
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:19
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -5.54%E -3.82%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 14:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 11:14
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:40
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.19%E -4.30%K -14.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:39
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.13%EV -7.50%E -5.28%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 14:19
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 15:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -8.15%E -5.78%K -19.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-16 14:34
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -8.15%E -5.78%K -19.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-16 14:34
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -18.25%E -4.35%K -5.70%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 14:35
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -11.40%E -8.39%K -31.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-16 14:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.11%EV -11.40%E -8.39%K -31.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -7.65%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-16 14:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.91%EV -10.10%E -7.32%K -26.58%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.18%EV -9.19%E -1.56%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -12.41%E -2.76%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 14:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -10.73%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 14:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -10.73%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 14:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -10.73%E -1.85%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -14.36%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 14:35
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -6.84%E -4.79%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.50%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -10.46%E -2.27%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 11:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.25%EV -10.10%E -7.32%K -26.58%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.80%EV -12.27%E -2.15%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-16 14:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.76%EV -8.15%E -5.78%K -19.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -15.34%E -2.79%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -4.62%E -0.944%K -1.19%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 14:29
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -8.80%E -6.29%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -15.34%E -2.79%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -7.54%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 13:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.44%EV -9.45%E -6.80%K -24.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.90%EV -18.42%E -3.48%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 14:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.66%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%0.7%2026-08-16 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.43%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.0%2026-08-16 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.43%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.0%2026-08-16 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.43%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.37%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.0%2026-08-16 14:35
Kalshi◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.32%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.86%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.81%1.0%2026-08-16 14:40
Smarkets◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.58%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.32%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.11%1.5%2026-08-16 14:40