Toluca v Necaxa

2026-08-03 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

63%

16%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Toluca (Local)

Prediction 62.98%1.59fair odd

EV -5.53%

Edge -3.68%

Kelly -11.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.75%62.90%62.86%63.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.411.461.461.5071%69%69%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Necaxa (Visit)

Prediction 16.25%6.15fair odd

EV -1.86%

Edge -0.308%

Kelly -0.369%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.43%16.21%16.26%18.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

4.755.565.606.0421%18%18%17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.77%4.81fair odd

EV -0.303%

Edge -0.063%

Kelly -0.080%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.66%20.89%20.88%22.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.904.334.334.8026%23%23%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Coolbet	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.43%EV -5.53%E -3.68%K -11.05%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -6.57%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.34%E -0.282%K -0.358%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-20 19:35
Betsson	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -6.16%E -4.13%K -12.57%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -4.14%E -0.701%K -0.844%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.73%E -2.76%K -3.61%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-21 06:55
NordicBet	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -6.16%E -4.13%K -12.57%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -4.14%E -0.701%K -0.844%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -11.73%E -2.76%K -3.61%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-21 06:55
SportsBet	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.78%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.56%EV -7.39%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -0.303%E -0.063%K -0.080%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-20 19:35
FanDuel	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.78%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.56%EV -7.39%E -1.30%K -1.57%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -0.303%E -0.063%K -0.080%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-20 19:34
Fanatics	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -6.57%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.34%E -0.282%K -0.358%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-20 19:35
1xBet	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.39%EV -7.42%E -5.05%K -15.78%G +0.000%	6.04I 16.56%NM 15.43%EV -1.86%E -0.308%K -0.369%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-20 19:35
Marathon Bet	1.46I 68.49%NM 63.49%EV -8.05%E -5.51%K -17.49%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -2.51%E -0.419%K -0.502%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-20 19:35
LeoVegas	1.45I 68.97%NM 62.17%EV -8.68%E -5.98%K -19.28%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.34%EV -15.51%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.49%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-07-20 19:35
Paddy Power	1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -9.31%E -6.46%K -21.15%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -18.76%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%	11.7%	2026-07-20 19:32
William Hill	1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -9.31%E -6.46%K -21.15%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -10.64%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -19.00%E -4.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-07-20 19:35
888sport	1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -9.31%E -6.46%K -21.15%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -10.64%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -19.00%E -4.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-07-20 19:35
888sport (SE)	1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -9.31%E -6.46%K -21.15%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -10.64%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -19.00%E -4.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-07-20 19:35
Mr Green (SE)	1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -9.31%E -6.46%K -21.15%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -10.64%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -19.00%E -4.87%K -6.55%G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-07-20 19:35
Sky Bet	1.44I 69.44%NM 60.75%EV -9.31%E -6.46%K -21.15%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 18.42%EV -22.82%E -4.80%K -6.09%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -12.77%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%	14.3%	2026-07-20 19:35
Betclic (FR)	1.41I 70.92%NM 62.18%EV -11.20%E -7.94%K -27.31%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 16.70%EV -14.70%E -2.80%K -3.46%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 21.12%EV -13.80%E -3.33%K -4.38%G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-07-20 19:33

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.