Language:English
Toluca v FC Juárez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 62.38%1.60fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -7.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.54%62.65%62.39%67.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.441.441.5476.92%69.24%69.44%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Juárez (Visit)
Prediction 15.93%6.28fair odd
EV +19.45%
Edge +2.59%
Kelly +2.99%
Growth +0.582%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.04%15.67%15.91%17.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.236.007.5020.00%16.05%16.67%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.69%4.61fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.640%
Kelly +0.811%
Growth +0.025%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.87%21.68%21.70%23.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.284.304.7527.78%23.35%23.26%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 62.38%; FC Juárez (Visit): 15.93%; Draw: 21.69%. For FC Juárez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.28. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.45%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -12.67%E -9.05%K -31.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +3.04%E +0.640%K +0.811%G +0.025% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -12.67%E -9.05%K -31.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +3.04%E +0.640%K +0.811%G +0.025% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -15.16%E -11.15%K -42.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.213%E -0.046%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -15.16%E -11.15%K -42.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.213%E -0.046%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 22:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -15.16%E -11.15%K -42.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.213%E -0.046%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.73%EV -16.41%E -12.25%K -48.27%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.10%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.73%EV -16.41%E -12.25%K -48.27%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.10%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -17.03%E -12.81%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.76%EV -8.30%E -5.65%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV +11.49%E +1.64%K +1.91%G +0.220% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -4.55%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.51%EV -18.91%E -14.54%K -63.02%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.54%EV +11.49%E +1.64%K +1.91%G +0.220% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -4.55%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.90%EV -5.81%E -3.84%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.56I 15.24%NM 14.71%EV +4.48%E +0.683%K +0.806%G +0.036% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.39%EV -2.17%E -0.480%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.43%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 6.41I 15.60%NM 15.00%EV +2.09%E +0.326%K +0.387%G +0.008% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.57%EV -7.59%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.71%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.83%EV -2.85%E -0.466%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.71%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.83%EV -2.85%E -0.466%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.53%EV -3.64%E -0.602%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -5.18%E -3.41%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.03I 16.58%NM 15.65%EV -3.96%E -0.657%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.26%EV -8.02%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.55%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:58 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.65%EV -9.55%E -6.59%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -4.55%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.62%EV -7.68%E -5.19%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.58%EV -5.23%E -0.880%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -5.18%E -3.41%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -6.03%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -9.98%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -5.18%E -3.41%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -6.03%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -9.98%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.12%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.06%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.80%EV -7.05%E -4.73%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -9.98%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 22:58 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -7.68%E -5.19%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 22:58 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -12.67%E -9.05%K -31.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -17.57%E -4.62%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -17.57%E -4.62%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -17.57%E -4.62%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -17.57%E -4.62%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 60.85%EV -12.67%E -9.05%K -31.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.49%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.66%EV -21.91%E -6.09%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 61.79%EV -13.29%E -9.56%K -34.08%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 15.90%EV -13.99%E -2.59%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.31%EV -16.48%E -4.28%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.76%EV -8.30%E -5.65%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.94%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.54%EV -7.68%E -5.19%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -16.38%E -3.12%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.54%EV -7.68%E -5.19%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -16.38%E -3.12%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -10.80%E -7.55%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.71%EV -16.38%E -3.12%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.93%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.00%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -20.37%E -4.07%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -11.06%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.34% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.33% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.91% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.06% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 1.4% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.06% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 1.4% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.63% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.21% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.16% | 2.7% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |