La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Toluca v FC Juárez
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Toluca (Local)
Predicción 62.38%1.60momio equitativo
EV -3.93%
Ventaja -2.55%
Kelly -7.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.54
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.54%62.65%62.39%67.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.301.441.441.5476.92%69.24%69.44%64.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
FC Juárez (Visitante)
Predicción 15.93%6.28momio equitativo
EV +19.45%
Ventaja +2.59%
Kelly +2.99%
Crecimiento +0.582%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.04%15.67%15.91%17.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.006.236.007.5020.00%16.05%16.67%13.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 21.69%4.61momio equitativo
EV +3.04%
Ventaja +0.640%
Kelly +0.811%
Crecimiento +0.025%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.87%21.68%21.70%23.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.284.304.7527.78%23.35%23.26%21.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -12.67%E -9.05%K -31.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +3.04%E +0.640%K +0.811%G +0.025% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -12.67%E -9.05%K -31.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +3.04%E +0.640%K +0.811%G +0.025% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Unibet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Casumo | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Grosvenor | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.68%EV -13.92%E -10.08%K -36.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV +1.96%E +0.416%K +0.529%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| TABtouch | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -15.16%E -11.15%K -42.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.213%E -0.046%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| BetRivers | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -15.16%E -11.15%K -42.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.213%E -0.046%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 22:45 |
| betPARX | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -15.16%E -11.15%K -42.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -0.213%E -0.046%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.73%EV -16.41%E -12.25%K -48.27%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.10%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.73%EV -16.41%E -12.25%K -48.27%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.10%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -17.03%E -12.81%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV +19.45%E +2.59%K +2.99%G +0.582% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Coolbet | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.76%EV -8.30%E -5.65%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV +11.49%E +1.64%K +1.91%G +0.220% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -4.55%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.51%EV -18.91%E -14.54%K -63.02%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.54%EV +11.49%E +1.64%K +1.91%G +0.220% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -4.55%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.90%EV -5.81%E -3.84%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.56I 15.24%NM 14.71%EV +4.48%E +0.683%K +0.806%G +0.036% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.39%EV -2.17%E -0.480%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| 1xBet | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.43%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 6.41I 15.60%NM 15.00%EV +2.09%E +0.326%K +0.387%G +0.008% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.57%EV -7.59%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.71%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.83%EV -2.85%E -0.466%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.71%EV -3.93%E -2.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.83%EV -2.85%E -0.466%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| BetUS | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.53%EV -3.64%E -0.602%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| GTbets | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -5.18%E -3.41%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 6.03I 16.58%NM 15.65%EV -3.96%E -0.657%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.26%EV -8.02%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| DraftKings | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.55%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Bet Victor | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 22:58 |
| FanDuel | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.65%EV -9.55%E -6.59%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -4.55%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Fliff | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -4.44%E -0.740%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.62%EV -7.68%E -5.19%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.58%EV -5.23%E -0.880%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Betsson | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -5.18%E -3.41%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -6.03%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -9.98%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| NordicBet | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -5.18%E -3.41%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -6.03%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -9.98%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| BetMGM | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Fanatics | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.12%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| PlayUp | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.06%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Bovada | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.80%EV -7.05%E -4.73%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -9.98%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 22:58 |
| Bet Right | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -7.68%E -5.19%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Everygame | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.42%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Betway | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -6.43%E -4.29%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 22:58 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -12.67%E -9.05%K -31.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| 888sport | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -17.57%E -4.62%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| William Hill | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -17.57%E -4.62%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -17.57%E -4.62%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -17.57%E -4.62%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 60.85%EV -12.67%E -9.05%K -31.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.49%EV -12.40%E -2.25%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.66%EV -21.91%E -6.09%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.39I 71.94%NM 61.79%EV -13.29%E -9.56%K -34.08%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 15.90%EV -13.99%E -2.59%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.31%EV -16.48%E -4.28%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.76%EV -8.30%E -5.65%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -15.59%E -2.94%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Coral | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.54%EV -7.68%E -5.19%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -16.38%E -3.12%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.54%EV -7.68%E -5.19%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -16.38%E -3.12%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -10.80%E -7.55%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.71%EV -16.38%E -3.12%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.93%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.00%EV -10.17%E -7.06%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -20.37%E -4.07%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -11.06%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.34% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Kalshi | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.33% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.91% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.06% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 1.4% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.06% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 1.4% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |
| Smarkets | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.63% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.21% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.16% | 2.7% | 2026-03-08 22:59 |