Language:English
Toluca v FC Juárez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 70.22%1.42fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -8.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.31%70.25%70.30%73.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.301.301.3884.03%76.76%76.92%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Juárez (Visit)
Prediction 11.77%8.50fair odd
EV +11.82%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.164%
assuming max odds 9.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.88%11.70%11.68%12.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.068.009.5014.29%12.40%12.50%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.01%5.55fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.184%
Kelly +0.223%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 5.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.71%18.05%18.01%20.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.125.205.6122.22%19.52%19.23%17.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 70.22%; FC Juárez (Visit): 11.77%; Draw: 18.01%. For FC Juárez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.50. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.35%EV -10.12%E -7.90%K -36.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +11.82%E +1.24%K +1.39%G +0.164% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.77%EV +0.850%E +0.152%K +0.185%G +0.002% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 23:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.35%EV -10.12%E -7.90%K -36.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +11.82%E +1.24%K +1.39%G +0.164% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.77%EV +0.850%E +0.152%K +0.185%G +0.002% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 23:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.22%EV -5.90%E -4.41%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.60%EV +5.93%E +0.659%K +0.742%G +0.044% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -5.45%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 23:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -10.82%E -8.52%K -40.07%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +5.93%E +0.659%K +0.742%G +0.044% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -0.951%E -0.173%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 23:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -10.82%E -8.52%K -40.07%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +5.93%E +0.659%K +0.742%G +0.044% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -0.951%E -0.173%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 23:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -10.82%E -8.52%K -40.07%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +5.93%E +0.659%K +0.742%G +0.044% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -0.951%E -0.173%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 23:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -10.82%E -8.52%K -40.07%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +5.93%E +0.659%K +0.742%G +0.044% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -0.951%E -0.173%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 23:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.66%EV -10.82%E -8.52%K -40.07%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV +5.93%E +0.659%K +0.742%G +0.044% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -2.75%E -0.510%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.66%EV -10.82%E -8.52%K -40.07%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV +5.93%E +0.659%K +0.742%G +0.044% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -2.75%E -0.510%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.66%EV -10.82%E -8.52%K -40.07%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV +5.93%E +0.659%K +0.742%G +0.044% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -2.75%E -0.510%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.61%E -4.97%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV +0.049%E +0.006%K +0.006%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.61%E -4.97%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV +0.049%E +0.006%K +0.006%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.08%EV -12.22%E -9.78%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV +0.049%E +0.006%K +0.006%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -6.35%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.99%EV -12.93%E -10.42%K -53.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.50%EV +0.049%E +0.006%K +0.006%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.50%EV -8.15%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.40%EV -13.63%E -11.08%K -59.25%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.48%EV +0.049%E +0.006%K +0.006%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.13%EV -6.35%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-30 23:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.40%EV -13.63%E -11.08%K -59.25%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.48%EV +0.049%E +0.006%K +0.006%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.13%EV -6.35%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-30 23:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.68%EV -5.90%E -4.41%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.09%EV -2.31%E -0.278%K -0.316%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.23%EV -18.06%E -3.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.68%EV -5.90%E -4.41%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.09%EV -2.31%E -0.278%K -0.316%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.23%EV -18.06%E -3.97%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.97%EV -7.31%E -5.54%K -22.84%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.36%EV -2.89%E -0.351%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.68%EV -4.55%E -0.859%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.22%EV -4.50%E -3.31%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 8.22I 12.17%NM 11.62%EV -3.25%E -0.395%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.16%EV -5.27%E -1.00%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 23:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.70%EV -3.10%E -2.24%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 8.15I 12.27%NM 11.80%EV -4.07%E -0.499%K -0.569%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -6.35%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -6.61%E -4.97%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -5.84%E -0.730%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.45%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.11%EV -8.01%E -6.12%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -5.84%E -0.730%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -2.75%E -0.510%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-30 23:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -10.12%E -7.90%K -36.13%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -5.84%E -0.730%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -0.951%E -0.173%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-30 23:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.88%EV -8.01%E -6.12%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -5.84%E -0.730%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.68%EV -11.76%E -2.40%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.96%EV -9.42%E -7.30%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -5.84%E -0.730%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -6.35%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -12.22%E -9.78%K -48.90%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -5.84%E -0.730%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 72.11%EV -16.44%E -13.81%K -86.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.73%EV -5.84%E -0.730%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.16%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-08-30 23:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.54%EV -3.80%E -2.77%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.23%EV -7.01%E -0.888%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.61I 17.83%NM 17.23%EV +1.03%E +0.184%K +0.223%G +0.002% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 23:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.54%EV -3.80%E -2.77%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.23%EV -7.01%E -0.888%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.61I 17.83%NM 17.23%EV +1.03%E +0.184%K +0.223%G +0.002% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 23:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.37%EV -5.90%E -4.41%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.17%EV -8.78%E -1.13%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -2.75%E -0.510%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.97%EV -4.50%E -3.31%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.93%EV -8.78%E -1.13%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -17.16%E -3.73%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-30 23:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -6.61%E -4.97%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.03%EV -9.37%E -1.22%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.34%EV -9.05%E -1.79%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 23:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.32%EV -5.90%E -4.41%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 7.56I 13.23%NM 12.29%EV -11.02%E -1.46%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.39%EV -9.05%E -1.79%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-30 23:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.74%EV -5.90%E -4.41%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -11.72%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -5.45%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -6.61%E -4.97%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -11.72%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -5.45%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -5.90%E -4.41%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.72%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.04%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -11.72%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-30 23:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.42%E -7.30%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -11.72%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-30 23:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.42%E -7.30%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -11.72%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-30 23:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.30%EV -6.61%E -4.97%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.63%EV -14.08%E -1.93%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -8.15%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -6.61%E -4.97%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -18.96%E -4.21%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.04%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -13.56%E -2.82%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-30 23:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.04%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -17.16%E -3.73%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.04%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -17.16%E -3.73%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.04%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -17.16%E -3.73%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.04%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -17.16%E -3.73%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-30 23:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 69.16%EV -10.82%E -8.52%K -40.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.55%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.30%EV -13.56%E -2.82%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.39% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.98% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.63% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.41% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.78% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.81% | 0.8% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.89% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.84% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.20% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.05% | 1.1% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.72% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.76% | 1.1% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.19% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.53% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.29% | 3.3% | 2026-08-31 00:00 |