The School of Odds
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Tigres v Puebla

2026-09-27 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tigres (Local)

Prediction 62.66%1.60fair odd
EV -5.38%
Edge -3.56%
Kelly -10.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.34%62.59%62.66%63.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.471.481.5170.92%67.92%67.57%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Puebla (Visit)

Prediction 16.29%6.14fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.376%
Kelly -0.451%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.71%16.39%16.35%17.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.455.406.0020.00%18.34%18.52%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.05%4.75fair odd
EV -0.016%
Edge -0.003%
Kelly -0.004%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.86%21.03%20.99%22.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.234.204.7525.64%23.62%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tigres (Local): 62.66%; Puebla (Visit): 16.29%; Draw: 21.05%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.751. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.750, with an expected value of -0.016%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.85%EV -5.38%E -3.56%K -10.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.68%EV -8.77%E -1.57%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -8.44%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 02:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.85%EV -5.38%E -3.56%K -10.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.68%EV -8.77%E -1.57%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -8.44%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 02:45
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -2.26%E -0.376%K -0.451%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -7.38%E -1.68%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 01:20
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:45
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:44
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:45
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:45
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:44
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.40%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 01:19
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.52%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.54%G +0.000%5.79I 17.27%NM 16.35%EV -5.68%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -1.07%E -0.227%K -0.289%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 02:24
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -6.33%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -0.016%E -0.003%K -0.004%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 01:44
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.30%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.88%EV -3.89%E -0.659%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.28%E -1.17%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 01:24
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.30%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.88%EV -3.89%E -0.659%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.28%E -1.17%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 01:34
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -3.89%E -0.659%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -9.49%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 01:24
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -3.89%E -0.659%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -9.49%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 01:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -10.40%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -8.44%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 01:24
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.95%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -9.49%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 01:34
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.03%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -14.48%E -2.76%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -13.70%E -3.34%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 02:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.03%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -14.48%E -2.76%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -13.70%E -3.34%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 02:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.03%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -14.48%E -2.76%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -13.70%E -3.34%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 02:45
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.42%EV -8.52%E -5.83%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.87I 17.04%NM 15.77%EV -4.38%E -0.745%K -0.898%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -6.33%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 01:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.46%EV -9.14%E -6.31%K -20.32%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -5.52%E -0.951%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.68%EV -6.33%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 01:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.93%EV -9.14%E -6.31%K -20.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.99%EV -15.29%E -2.94%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.09%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-20 02:44
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -10.40%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -8.86%E -2.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 01:33
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 02:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 02:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 02:14
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 02:19
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.34%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.28%EV -17.91%E -4.59%K -6.18%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-20 01:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.33%EV -11.65%E -8.26%K -28.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.74%EV -14.48%E -2.76%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 01:18
PMU (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 60.84%EV -11.65%E -8.26%K -28.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.16%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.00%EV -17.91%E -4.59%K -6.18%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-20 02:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.33%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-09-20 07:19
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 60.97%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.49%16.3%2026-09-20 01:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-20 01:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-20 01:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-20 01:34