Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tigres v Puebla

2026-09-27 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Resultado del partido

33 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tigres (Local)

Predicción 62.66%1.60momio equitativo
EV -5.38%
Ventaja -3.56%
Kelly -10.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.34%62.59%62.66%63.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.411.471.481.5170.92%67.92%67.57%66.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Puebla (Visitante)

Predicción 16.29%6.14momio equitativo
EV -2.26%
Ventaja -0.376%
Kelly -0.451%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.71%16.39%16.35%17.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.455.406.0020.00%18.34%18.52%16.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.05%4.75momio equitativo
EV -0.016%
Ventaja -0.003%
Kelly -0.004%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.86%21.03%20.99%22.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.234.204.7525.64%23.62%23.81%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Tigres (Local): 62.66%; Puebla (Visitante): 16.29%; Empate: 21.05%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.751. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 4.750, con un valor esperado de -0.016%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (33 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.85%EV -5.38%E -3.56%K -10.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.68%EV -8.77%E -1.57%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -8.44%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 02:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.85%EV -5.38%E -3.56%K -10.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.68%EV -8.77%E -1.57%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -8.44%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 02:45
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -2.26%E -0.376%K -0.451%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -7.38%E -1.68%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 01:20
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:45
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:44
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:45
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:45
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 02:44
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.40%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 01:19
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.52%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.54%G +0.000%5.79I 17.27%NM 16.35%EV -5.68%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -1.07%E -0.227%K -0.289%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 02:24
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -6.33%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -0.016%E -0.003%K -0.004%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 01:44
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.30%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.88%EV -3.89%E -0.659%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.28%E -1.17%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 01:24
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.30%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.88%EV -3.89%E -0.659%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.28%E -1.17%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 01:34
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -3.89%E -0.659%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -9.49%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 01:24
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -3.89%E -0.659%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -9.49%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 01:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.14%EV -7.26%E -4.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -10.40%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -8.44%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 01:24
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.95%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -12.03%E -2.23%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -9.49%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 01:34
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.03%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -14.48%E -2.76%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -13.70%E -3.34%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 02:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.03%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -14.48%E -2.76%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -13.70%E -3.34%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 02:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.03%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -14.48%E -2.76%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -13.70%E -3.34%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 02:45
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.42%EV -8.52%E -5.83%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.87I 17.04%NM 15.77%EV -4.38%E -0.745%K -0.898%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -6.33%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 01:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.46%EV -9.14%E -6.31%K -20.32%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -5.52%E -0.951%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.68%EV -6.33%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 01:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.93%EV -9.14%E -6.31%K -20.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.99%EV -15.29%E -2.94%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.09%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-20 02:44
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -10.40%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -8.86%E -2.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 01:33
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 02:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 02:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 02:14
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.80%E -3.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 02:19
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.34%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.28%EV -17.91%E -4.59%K -6.18%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-20 01:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.33%EV -11.65%E -8.26%K -28.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.74%EV -14.48%E -2.76%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 01:18
PMU (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 60.84%EV -11.65%E -8.26%K -28.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.16%EV -18.55%E -3.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.00%EV -17.91%E -4.59%K -6.18%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-20 02:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 64.63%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%1.8%2026-09-20 08:04
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 60.97%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.49%16.3%2026-09-20 01:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-20 01:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-20 01:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-20 01:34