The School of Odds
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Querétaro v Toluca

2026-08-22 23:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Querétaro (Local)

Prediction 26.61%3.76fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.17%26.61%26.57%27.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.373.403.5531.75%29.65%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toluca (Visit)

Prediction 48.18%2.08fair odd
EV -5.56%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -5.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.74%48.18%48.17%48.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.891.921.9655.87%52.78%52.08%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.21%3.97fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.63%25.21%25.26%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.703.8029.41%27.49%27.03%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Querétaro (Local): 26.61%; Toluca (Visit): 48.18%; Draw: 25.21%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.80, with an expected value of -4.22%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -5.53%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.38%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -8.00%E -2.19%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 00:10
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -5.53%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.38%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -8.00%E -2.19%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-13 00:10
1xBet🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 26.85%EV -7.12%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.82%EV -5.56%E -2.84%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-13 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -6.53%E -3.36%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.22%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 23:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -8.19%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -6.53%E -3.36%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.22%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 23:35
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 23:34
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 23:35
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 23:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 23:35
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 23:30
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 23:30
betPARX🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -9.52%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 23:30
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -12.18%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.94%EV -9.90%E -5.29%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-12 23:35
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.18%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.86%E -5.87%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -11.78%E -3.36%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-13 00:10
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.57%EV -12.18%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.17%EV -12.31%E -6.76%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.26%EV -12.53%E -3.61%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-13 00:13
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.51%E -4.16%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -10.86%E -5.87%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.93%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 23:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.51%E -4.16%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -10.86%E -5.87%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.93%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 23:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.51%E -4.16%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -10.86%E -5.87%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.93%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 23:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.13%EV -16.17%E -5.13%K -7.52%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 47.74%EV -13.75%E -7.68%K -17.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -14.30%E -4.21%K -5.96%G +0.000%17.0%2026-08-12 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 29.73%1.85I 54.05%NM 44.68%3.23I 30.96%NM 25.59%21.0%2026-08-13 01:00

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