Language:English
Querétaro v Toluca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Querétaro (Local)
Prediction 25.33%3.95fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -0.847%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.17%25.28%25.41%26.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.633.703.8229.41%27.57%27.03%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toluca (Visit)
Prediction 49.53%2.02fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.51%49.49%49.54%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.861.851.9658.48%53.85%54.05%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.14%3.98fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.670%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.55%25.23%25.05%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.633.653.9030.30%27.57%27.40%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Querétaro (Local): 25.33%; Toluca (Visit): 49.53%; Draw: 25.14%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.94%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.90%EV -3.24%E -0.847%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.53%EV -2.93%E -1.49%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.57%EV -9.99%E -2.79%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 02:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.44%EV -3.74%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.58%EV -3.42%E -1.76%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.98%EV -2.70%E -0.697%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-22 03:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -3.74%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.40%E -2.83%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.46%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -3.74%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.40%E -2.83%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -9.49%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 02:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.74%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -8.38%E -4.53%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -4.46%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-22 02:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.74%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -8.38%E -4.53%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -4.46%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-22 02:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -3.74%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -10.85%E -6.03%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-22 02:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.79I 26.39%NM 24.74%EV -4.00%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.13%EV -7.39%E -3.95%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.13%EV -6.22%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-21 14:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -3.42%E -1.76%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -1.94%E -0.498%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-22 02:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -3.42%E -1.76%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -1.94%E -0.498%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-22 02:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -3.42%E -1.76%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -1.94%E -0.498%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-22 02:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.12%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -6.89%E -3.67%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.46%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -5.40%E -2.83%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -9.49%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-22 02:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -5.40%E -2.83%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.46%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.40%E -2.83%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -7.39%E -3.95%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -6.89%E -3.67%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -9.49%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -4.91%E -2.56%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -13.26%E -3.84%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-22 02:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -9.86%E -5.42%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 02:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -9.86%E -5.42%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 02:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -9.86%E -5.42%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 02:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -9.86%E -5.42%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 02:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -9.86%E -5.42%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 02:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -9.86%E -5.42%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 02:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.28%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -9.86%E -5.42%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 02:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.17%EV -6.78%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.80%EV -7.88%E -4.24%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -5.90%E -3.11%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 03:08 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -7.39%E -3.95%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 02:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -7.39%E -3.95%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 02:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -9.37%E -5.12%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -9.49%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.28%EV -11.84%E -6.65%K -15.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -9.49%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-22 02:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -10.08%E -2.84%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.64%EV -5.90%E -3.11%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -8.23%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.96%EV -10.08%E -2.84%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.07%EV -12.34%E -6.97%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.96%EV -10.74%E -3.03%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-22 02:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.96%EV -10.08%E -2.84%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.07%EV -12.34%E -6.97%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.96%EV -10.74%E -3.03%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-22 02:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.96%EV -10.08%E -2.84%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.07%EV -12.34%E -6.97%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.96%EV -10.74%E -3.03%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-22 02:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.56%EV -6.89%E -3.67%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.49%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.38%E -4.53%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-22 02:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.02%EV -9.86%E -5.42%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -12.61%E -3.65%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.28%EV -5.90%E -3.11%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -8.23%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 02:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -12.61%E -3.65%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.22%EV -11.84%E -6.65%K -15.18%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -13.26%E -3.84%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 24.89%EV -12.61%E -3.65%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 50.22%EV -15.31%E -8.95%K -21.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 24.89%EV -13.26%E -3.84%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-08-22 02:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -13.88%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -5.90%E -3.11%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.00%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-22 02:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.88%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.38%E -4.53%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-22 02:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.88%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.38%E -4.53%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-22 02:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -13.88%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -13.33%E -7.62%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -13.88%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -8.38%E -4.53%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -17.03%E -5.16%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -13.88%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -8.38%E -4.53%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -17.03%E -5.16%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -13.88%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -8.38%E -4.53%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -17.03%E -5.16%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.22% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05% | 1.1% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.93% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35% | 1.1% | 2026-08-22 03:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.35% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.98% | 1.3% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.06% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29% | 1.4% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.59% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.19% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.22% | 1.7% | 2026-08-22 03:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.02% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51% | 2.0% | 2026-08-22 02:10 |