Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Querétaro v Cruz Azul

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 01:04 UTC

Final: Querétaro 1–1 Cruz Azul

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Querétaro (Local)

Prediction 18.48%5.41fair odd
EV +2.35%
Edge +0.425%
Kelly +0.518%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 5.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.29%18.52%18.46%20.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.904.805.5423.09%20.43%20.83%18.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cruz Azul (Visit)

Prediction 59.28%1.69fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.76%59.17%59.38%60.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.561.551.6569.93%64.02%64.52%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.25%4.49fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.429%
Kelly -0.554%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.38%22.31%22.16%24.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.074.104.4128.57%24.55%24.39%22.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Querétaro (Local): 18.48%; Cruz Azul (Visit): 59.28%; Draw: 22.25%. For Querétaro (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.41. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.54I 18.05%NM 17.31%EV +2.35%E +0.425%K +0.518%G +0.012%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.69%EV -6.34%E -4.01%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.99%EV -3.00%E -0.689%K -0.894%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 00:59
BetOnline.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.59%EV +1.61%E +0.293%K +0.359%G +0.006%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.56%E -2.83%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.34%EV -3.67%E -0.848%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-22 01:00
LowVig.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.59%EV +1.61%E +0.293%K +0.359%G +0.006%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.56%E -2.83%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.34%EV -3.67%E -0.848%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-22 00:59
BetUS🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.59%EV +1.61%E +0.293%K +0.359%G +0.006%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.08%EV -4.56%E -2.83%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.34%EV -3.67%E -0.848%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-22 01:00
Coolbet🎯5.45I 18.35%NM 17.46%EV +0.690%E +0.127%K +0.155%G +0.001%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.75%EV -3.97%E -2.45%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 00:59
NordicBet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -0.234%E -0.043%K -0.053%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.22%EV -8.12%E -5.24%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -7.67%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 01:00
Betsson🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -0.234%E -0.043%K -0.053%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.22%EV -8.12%E -5.24%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -7.67%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 01:00
Pinnacle🎯5.31I 18.83%NM 18.17%EV -1.90%E -0.357%K -0.440%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.94%EV -4.56%E -2.83%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.88%EV -1.89%E -0.429%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-22 00:59
FanDuel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.62%EV -2.08%E -0.393%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.65%EV -8.71%E -5.66%K -16.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -4.34%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 00:59
Bet Victor🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -3.01%E -0.572%K -0.707%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -3.67%E -0.848%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 00:59
PlayUp🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -3.01%E -0.572%K -0.707%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -8.12%E -5.24%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 01:00
GTbets🎯5.17I 19.34%NM 18.47%EV -4.48%E -0.867%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.95%EV -3.97%E -2.45%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.58%EV -5.89%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 01:00
Marathon Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.17%EV -5.78%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.77%EV -8.12%E -5.24%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 00:59
Fliff🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 18.08%EV -6.70%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.66%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-22 01:00
DraftKings🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.62%E -1.52%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -6.93%E -4.42%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -4.34%E -1.01%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 01:00
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -7.62%E -1.52%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -6.34%E -4.01%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 00:59
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -7.62%E -1.52%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.11%EV -8.71%E -5.66%K -16.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -3.67%E -0.848%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 00:59
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -7.62%E -1.52%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.25%EV -7.53%E -4.82%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -7.67%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 00:54
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.62%E -1.52%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -8.12%E -5.24%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 01:00
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.62%E -1.52%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -8.12%E -5.24%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 01:00
Bet Right🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.62%E -1.52%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.24%EV -8.12%E -5.24%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-22 00:59
Everygame🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.62%E -1.52%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -8.12%E -5.24%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 01:00
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -7.62%E -1.52%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.08%E -7.39%K -22.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 01:00
Winamax (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.50%EV -9.47%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.85%EV -8.71%E -5.66%K -16.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-22 01:00
ATG (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -11.32%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -2.19%E -1.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 01:00
Svenska Spel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -11.32%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -2.19%E -1.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -6.56%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 01:00
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.32%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -15.46%E -4.07%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-22 00:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.32%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -15.46%E -4.07%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-22 00:59
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.32%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -15.46%E -4.07%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-22 00:59
Sky Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -11.32%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -11.08%E -7.39%K -22.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -13.24%E -3.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-22 01:00
NetBet (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 17.90%EV -11.32%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 60.08%EV -15.23%E -10.65%K -35.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.03%EV -13.24%E -3.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-22 01:00
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -12.24%E -2.58%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%EV -5.75%E -3.62%K -9.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 01:00
Unibet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -13.17%E -2.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -3.97%E -2.45%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 01:00
Grosvenor🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -13.17%E -2.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -3.97%E -2.45%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 01:00
Unibet (NL)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -13.17%E -2.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -3.97%E -2.45%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 01:00
Unibet (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -13.17%E -2.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -3.97%E -2.45%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 00:59
Casumo🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -13.17%E -2.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -3.97%E -2.45%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 01:00
betPARX🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -13.17%E -2.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -3.97%E -2.45%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 01:00
TABtouch🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -13.17%E -2.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.78%EV -5.16%E -3.22%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -8.79%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 01:00
BetRivers🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -13.17%E -2.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.30%EV -4.56%E -2.83%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-22 00:54
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -15.01%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.52%EV -6.34%E -4.01%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 01:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -15.01%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -6.93%E -4.42%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 01:00
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -15.01%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.67%EV -7.53%E -4.82%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -12.12%E -3.07%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-22 01:00
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -15.01%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-22 00:59
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -15.01%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-22 01:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -15.01%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-22 01:00
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.01%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.31%EV -8.12%E -5.24%K -14.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -15.46%E -4.07%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-22 01:00
Winamax (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%EV -15.01%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.13%EV -9.90%E -6.51%K -19.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -13.24%E -3.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-22 01:00
Unibet (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -15.01%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 58.78%EV -11.68%E -7.84%K -23.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.17%EV -12.12%E -3.07%K -4.11%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-22 00:59
Betclic (FR)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 19.31%EV -15.94%E -3.50%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 58.17%EV -10.49%E -6.95%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.52%EV -13.24%E -3.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-22 00:59
PMU (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -16.86%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -13.24%E -3.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-22 01:00
LeoVegas🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -16.86%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -13.24%E -3.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-22 01:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 18.92%EV -16.86%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 56.76%EV -11.08%E -7.39%K -22.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.32%EV -22.14%E -6.32%K -8.85%G +0.000%17.5%2026-04-22 00:59
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.36%EV -20.00%E -4.62%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.61%EV -9.31%E -6.08%K -17.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -11.01%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-22 00:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi5.56I 17.99%NM 17.82%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.41%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.77%0.9%2026-04-22 01:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%1.2%2026-04-22 01:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%1.2%2026-04-22 01:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%1.2%2026-04-22 01:00
Matchbook5.90I 16.95%NM 16.71%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.41%1.4%2026-04-22 01:00
Smarkets5.50I 18.18%NM 17.56%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.98%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%3.5%2026-04-22 01:00