The School of Odds

Pachuca v Querétaro

2026-07-27 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pachuca (Local)

Prediction 58.89%1.70fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -3.61%
Kelly -9.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.03%58.90%58.96%60.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.551.6067%64%65%63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Querétaro (Visit)

Prediction 17.56%5.70fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -0.625%
Kelly -0.764%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.94%17.55%17.50%18.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.605.095.005.5022%20%20%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.56%4.25fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.253%
Kelly -0.332%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.18%23.54%23.54%25.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.823.754.2028%26%27%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.81%EV -5.78%E -3.61%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.40%EV -3.44%E -0.625%K -0.764%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.06%E -0.253%K -0.332%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-12 20:19
NordicBet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.85%EV -5.78%E -3.61%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.19%E -0.962%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-13 00:14
Betsson1.60I 62.50%NM 57.85%EV -5.78%E -3.61%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.19%E -0.962%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-13 00:15
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 58.56%EV -6.37%E -4.01%K -10.80%G +0.000%5.23I 19.12%NM 17.80%EV -8.18%E -1.56%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.63%EV -7.19%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-12 22:20
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.75%EV -7.55%E -4.81%K -13.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.37%EV -5.19%E -0.962%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -3.42%E -0.834%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 20:19
Marathon Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.01%EV -7.55%E -4.81%K -13.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -6.95%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.51%EV -7.19%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-12 22:14
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -8.72%E -5.63%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -12.22%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-12 23:25
William Hill1.55I 64.52%NM 57.03%EV -8.72%E -5.63%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -15.73%E -3.28%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.85%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-12 20:19
FanDuel1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -9.90%E -6.47%K -18.68%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.44%E -0.625%K -0.764%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -1.06%E -0.253%K -0.332%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-12 20:19
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.90%E -6.47%K -18.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.22%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -5.78%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-12 20:24
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 57.35%EV -9.90%E -6.47%K -18.68%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.28%EV -15.73%E -3.28%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-12 20:19
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 57.35%EV -9.90%E -6.47%K -18.68%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.28%EV -15.73%E -3.28%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-12 20:19
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 57.35%EV -9.90%E -6.47%K -18.68%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.28%EV -15.73%E -3.28%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-12 20:19
Betclic (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.50%EV -11.67%E -7.78%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.09%EV -14.85%E -3.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -11.66%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-12 20:19
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 57.38%EV -11.67%E -7.78%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.71%EV -19.24%E -4.18%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.85%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-12 20:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 20:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 20:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 20:59