Idioma:Español
Necaxa v Toluca
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Necaxa (Local)
Predicción 18.30%5.46momio equitativo
EV +7.06%
Ventaja +1.21%
Kelly +1.46%
Crecimiento +0.103%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.85
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.53%18.66%18.16%23.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.884.944.905.8525.77%20.24%20.41%17.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Toluca (Visitante)
Predicción 57.85%1.73momio equitativo
EV +5.87%
Ventaja +3.21%
Kelly +7.08%
Crecimiento +0.416%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.65%57.38%57.97%59.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.481.601.601.8367.57%62.33%62.50%54.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 23.84%4.19momio equitativo
EV -2.24%
Ventaja -0.546%
Kelly -0.722%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.04%23.96%23.87%25.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.853.904.1030.30%25.94%25.64%24.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Necaxa (Local): 18.30%; Toluca (Visitante): 57.85%; Empate: 23.84%. Para Necaxa (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.46. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.85, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.06%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 23.89%EV -28.99%E -7.47%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.65%EV +5.87%E +3.21%K +7.08%G +0.416% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.46%EV -13.21%E -3.63%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-20 05:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -19.48%E -4.43%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -2.80%E -1.67%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-21 19:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.82%EV -12.16%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.97%EV -3.38%E -2.03%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -2.24%E -0.546%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.82%EV -12.16%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.97%EV -3.38%E -2.03%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -2.24%E -0.546%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -12.16%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.95%EV -3.38%E -2.03%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-22 00:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.12%EV -3.01%E -0.567%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.86%EV -3.96%E -2.39%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-21 17:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.09I 19.65%NM 18.56%EV -6.85%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.91%EV -3.96%E -2.39%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -8.20%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-22 00:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.27%EV +2.12%E +0.380%K +0.462%G +0.010% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.76%EV -5.12%E -3.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 23.97%EV -4.14%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -13.99%E -2.98%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -13.99%E -2.98%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -13.99%E -2.98%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -13.99%E -2.98%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -13.99%E -2.98%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -13.99%E -2.98%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.12%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.31%EV +1.57%E +0.283%K +0.345%G +0.005% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.92%EV -5.70%E -3.50%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -3.67%E -0.908%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV +7.06%E +1.21%K +1.46%G +0.103% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -6.28%E -3.87%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.76%EV -2.95%E -0.725%K -0.962%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV +7.06%E +1.21%K +1.46%G +0.103% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -6.28%E -3.87%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.76%EV -2.95%E -0.725%K -0.962%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.87%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.49%EV -6.28%E -3.87%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.82%E -3.44%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%EV -6.28%E -3.87%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -3.92%E -0.747%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -6.85%E -4.26%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-22 00:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -6.85%E -4.26%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-21 20:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -6.85%E -4.26%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-21 21:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -12.16%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -6.85%E -4.26%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -3.92%E -0.747%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.94%EV -7.43%E -4.65%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -15.82%E -3.44%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -7.43%E -4.65%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -15.82%E -3.44%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -7.43%E -4.65%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -15.82%E -3.44%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -7.43%E -4.65%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -3.01%E -0.567%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.56%EV -8.01%E -5.04%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-21 21:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -1.18%E -0.218%K -0.267%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.08%EV -8.59%E -5.44%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -1.18%E -0.218%K -0.267%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.08%EV -8.59%E -5.44%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -3.92%E -0.747%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.06%EV -8.59%E -5.44%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -13.99%E -2.98%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.60%EV -8.59%E -5.44%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -17.65%E -3.92%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.77%EV -8.59%E -5.44%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.30%EV -8.20%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV +0.654%E +0.119%K +0.145%G +0.001% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -9.17%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV +0.654%E +0.119%K +0.145%G +0.001% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -9.17%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-22 00:52 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -9.17%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-02-21 22:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.17%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.16%E -3.93%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-02-21 21:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.17%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.16%E -3.93%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-02-21 21:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.17%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.16%E -3.93%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-02-21 21:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.17%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.16%E -3.93%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-02-21 21:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -13.07%E -2.75%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -9.17%E -5.84%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.16%E -3.93%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-02-21 21:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -10.33%E -6.66%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-02-22 00:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -10.33%E -6.66%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.60%EV -12.16%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.60%EV -10.33%E -6.66%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.81%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.60%EV -12.16%E -2.53%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.60%EV -10.33%E -6.66%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.81%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%EV -17.65%E -3.92%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.23%EV -10.90%E -7.08%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.19%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 18.86%EV -14.90%E -3.20%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.31%EV -11.48%E -7.50%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 23.83%EV -12.25%E -3.33%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-02-22 00:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.85%EV -17.65%E -3.92%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 55.44%EV -11.48%E -7.50%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.71%EV -21.31%E -6.46%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-02-21 21:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.24%EV -13.99%E -2.98%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 57.94%EV -14.38%E -9.71%K -29.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.82%EV -14.16%E -3.93%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-02-22 00:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55% | 1.1% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55% | 1.1% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55% | 1.1% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55% | 1.1% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.66% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.94% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40% | 1.7% | 2026-02-22 00:55 |