The School of Odds

Monterrey v FC Juárez

2026-08-16 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Monterrey (Local)

Prediction 60.29%1.66fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -2.61%
Kelly -7.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.48%60.00%60.29%61.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.461.531.531.5968.49%65.39%65.36%62.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Juárez (Visit)

Prediction 17.45%5.73fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -0.730%
Kelly -0.893%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.36%17.72%17.45%19.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.504.984.905.5022.22%20.10%20.41%18.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.26%4.49fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.466%
Kelly -0.603%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.99%22.28%22.26%23.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.754.014.054.4026.67%24.91%24.69%22.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.33%EV -4.14%E -2.61%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.21%EV -9.60%E -1.85%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -6.50%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 11:30
Coolbet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.43%EV -4.75%E -3.00%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -4.02%E -0.730%K -0.893%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%EV -4.28%E -0.994%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-26 11:30
William Hill1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -17.11%E -3.60%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -16.52%E -4.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 11:40
SportsBet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -7.16%E -4.65%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.76%EV -8.38%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.28%E -0.994%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Marathon Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.18%EV -7.16%E -4.65%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV -7.51%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.33%EV -7.61%E -1.83%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 13:00
LeoVegas1.53I 65.36%NM 59.17%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -14.49%E -2.96%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.35%EV -9.84%E -2.43%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-26 12:55
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -17.11%E -3.60%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -16.52%E -4.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-26 11:35
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -17.11%E -3.60%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -16.52%E -4.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-26 11:35
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -17.11%E -3.60%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -16.52%E -4.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-26 11:35
FanDuel1.50I 66.67%NM 61.58%EV -9.57%E -6.38%K -19.14%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.43%EV -7.51%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -2.05%E -0.466%K -0.603%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 11:29
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -9.57%E -6.38%K -19.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.74%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -6.50%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-26 11:30
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 57.87%EV -9.57%E -6.38%K -19.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.29%EV -21.47%E -4.77%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.84%EV -15.41%E -4.05%K -5.50%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Betclic (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 59.05%EV -11.98%E -8.21%K -26.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.15%EV -17.11%E -3.60%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.81%EV -15.85%E -4.19%K -5.70%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-26 12:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.