The School of OddsLeón v Atlas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
León (Local)
Prediction 43.20%2.32fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.07%43.23%43.30%46.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.922.112.102.2152.08%47.47%47.62%45.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Atlas (Visit)
Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV +4.20%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.069%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.73%29.25%29.28%30.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.233.203.5534.48%31.00%31.25%28.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Draw
Prediction 27.45%3.64fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.560%
Kelly -0.778%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.62%27.52%27.42%28.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.353.5732.26%29.90%29.85%28.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.87%EV -10.15%E -4.88%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV +4.20%E +1.18%K +1.65%G +0.069% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -3.92%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.87%EV -10.15%E -4.88%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV +4.20%E +1.18%K +1.65%G +0.069% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -3.92%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| 1xBet | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.21%EV -6.26%E -2.89%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.41%EV +2.74%E +0.782%K +1.09%G +0.030% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.38%EV -7.22%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 00:55 |
| betPARX | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.63%EV -11.88%E -5.82%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV +1.27%E +0.367%K +0.517%G +0.007% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| Casumo | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.63%EV -11.88%E -5.82%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV +1.27%E +0.367%K +0.517%G +0.007% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| Grosvenor | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.63%EV -11.88%E -5.82%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV +1.27%E +0.367%K +0.517%G +0.007% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.63%EV -11.88%E -5.82%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV +1.27%E +0.367%K +0.517%G +0.007% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.63%EV -11.88%E -5.82%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV +1.27%E +0.367%K +0.517%G +0.007% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| Unibet | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.63%EV -11.88%E -5.82%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV +1.27%E +0.367%K +0.517%G +0.007% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| BetRivers | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.88%EV -12.74%E -6.31%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV +1.27%E +0.367%K +0.517%G +0.007% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| TABtouch | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -13.61%E -6.80%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -0.200%E -0.059%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.01%EV -14.47%E -7.31%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -0.200%E -0.059%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -14.90%E -7.57%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -0.200%E -0.059%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.89%EV -15.34%E -7.82%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -1.67%E -0.498%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.92%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.02%EV -2.25%E -0.677%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.07%EV -2.00%E -0.560%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-18 00:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.92%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.02%EV -2.25%E -0.677%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.07%EV -2.00%E -0.560%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-18 00:55 |
| BetUS | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -3.14%E -0.950%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.29%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-18 00:50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.54%EV -4.54%E -2.05%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.51%EV -4.31%E -1.32%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.95%EV -2.00%E -0.560%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-18 00:45 |
| GTbets | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -8.42%E -3.97%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.58%EV -4.31%E -1.32%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 27.48%EV -6.94%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-17 22:49 |
| NordicBet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -5.83%E -2.68%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -4.60%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -10.78%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 00:50 |
| Betsson | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -5.83%E -2.68%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -4.60%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -10.78%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 00:50 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.65%EV -17.06%E -8.89%K -18.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -4.60%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.39%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-18 00:30 |
| FanDuel | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-18 00:34 |
| SportsBet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.06%EV -5.83%E -2.68%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-18 00:35 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-17 23:14 |
| Fanatics | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-18 00:25 |
| PlayUp | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-18 00:50 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-18 00:50 |
| Coolbet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.26%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.93%EV -6.66%E -2.09%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -2.55%E -0.718%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 00:55 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.14%EV -6.66%E -2.09%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.75%EV -8.31%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-18 00:35 |
| DraftKings | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -3.92%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-18 00:35 |
| Fliff | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.42%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-18 00:35 |
| Betway | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.92%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-18 00:35 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-18 00:50 |
| Bet Right | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-17 23:30 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-18 00:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-18 00:45 |
| betfred_uk | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.78%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-17 23:28 |
| Everygame | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-18 00:35 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.81%EV -10.15%E -4.88%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 28.00%EV -12.71%E -4.00%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-18 00:34 |
| Sky Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-18 00:35 |
| Neds | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-17 18:04 |
| William Hill | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -14.88%E -5.13%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.90%E -4.81%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-17 23:25 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -14.88%E -5.13%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.90%E -4.81%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-17 23:25 |
| 888sport | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -14.88%E -5.13%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.90%E -4.81%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -14.88%E -5.13%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.90%E -4.81%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-17 23:24 |
| NetBet (FR) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.38%EV -13.61%E -6.80%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -14.88%E -5.13%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.70%EV -10.78%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-07-18 00:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-07-18 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-07-18 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-07-18 00:55 |
| Matchbook | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-07-18 00:55 |
| Smarkets | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.45% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.88% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.66% | 1.8% | 2026-07-18 00:55 |
| Kalshi | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.73% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21% | 3.0% | 2026-07-18 00:55 |