The School of Odds

FC Juárez v Puebla

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 03:00 UTC

Final: FC Juárez 0–1 Puebla

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Juárez (Local)

Prediction 55.17%1.81fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.94%55.32%55.10%58.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.511.651.671.7666.23%60.52%60.06%56.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Puebla (Visit)

Prediction 20.34%4.92fair odd
EV +0.675%
Edge +0.136%
Kelly +0.171%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.14%20.22%20.36%21.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.594.604.9523.81%21.78%21.74%20.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.49%4.08fair odd
EV +2.87%
Edge +0.684%
Kelly +0.898%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.35%24.46%24.53%26.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.833.834.2029.41%26.08%26.14%23.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Svenska Spel1.64I 60.98%NM 57.97%EV -9.52%E -5.81%K -14.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -0.342%E -0.070%K -0.088%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%EV +2.87%E +0.684%K +0.898%G +0.026%5.2%2026-07-18 02:25
ATG (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.97%EV -9.52%E -5.81%K -14.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -0.342%E -0.070%K -0.088%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%EV +2.87%E +0.684%K +0.898%G +0.026%5.2%2026-07-18 02:30
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -11.73%E -7.33%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -2.38%E -0.495%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.424%E +0.103%K +0.137%G +0.001%7.7%2026-07-18 02:45
Casumo1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -11.73%E -7.33%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -2.38%E -0.495%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.424%E +0.103%K +0.137%G +0.001%7.7%2026-07-18 02:45
Grosvenor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -11.73%E -7.33%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -2.38%E -0.495%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.424%E +0.103%K +0.137%G +0.001%7.7%2026-07-18 02:45
Unibet (NL)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -11.73%E -7.33%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -2.38%E -0.495%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.424%E +0.103%K +0.137%G +0.001%7.7%2026-07-18 02:45
Unibet (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -11.73%E -7.33%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -2.38%E -0.495%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.424%E +0.103%K +0.137%G +0.001%7.7%2026-07-18 02:45
Unibet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -11.73%E -7.33%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -2.38%E -0.495%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.424%E +0.103%K +0.137%G +0.001%7.7%2026-07-18 02:45
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -11.73%E -7.33%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -2.38%E -0.495%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.424%E +0.103%K +0.137%G +0.001%7.7%2026-07-18 02:45
TABtouch1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -13.39%E -8.53%K -23.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -3.39%E -0.714%K -0.905%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV +0.424%E +0.103%K +0.137%G +0.001%9.1%2026-07-18 02:45
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 55.47%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.40%EV -3.80%E -0.803%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.13%EV -2.03%E -0.506%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-18 02:45
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 55.47%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.40%EV -3.80%E -0.803%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.13%EV -2.03%E -0.506%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-18 02:45
Coolbet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.98%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.22%EV +0.675%E +0.136%K +0.171%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -2.03%E -0.506%K -0.675%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 02:55
LiveScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 57.92%EV -13.39%E -8.53%K -23.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -4.41%E -0.938%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -2.03%E -0.506%K -0.675%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-18 02:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.07%EV -13.94%E -8.93%K -24.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.28%EV -4.41%E -0.938%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -2.03%E -0.506%K -0.675%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-18 02:45
1xBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.77%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.94%EV -2.17%E -0.452%K -0.570%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.29%EV -3.25%E -0.823%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-18 02:55
Virgin Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.07%EV -14.49%E -9.35%K -26.34%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.15%EV -4.41%E -0.938%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -3.25%E -0.823%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-18 02:45
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.48%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.47%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-18 02:44
betano_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.48%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.47%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-18 02:44
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -8.42%E -5.07%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -2.38%E -0.495%K -0.625%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.47%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 03:24
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -11.18%E -6.94%K -18.33%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -2.38%E -0.495%K -0.625%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -4.47%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-10 03:23
PMU (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 58.29%EV -16.70%E -11.06%K -32.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -6.44%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.57%EV -4.47%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-18 02:45
GTbets1.65I 60.61%NM 56.25%EV -8.97%E -5.44%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 19.83%EV -4.82%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.92%EV -4.96%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 02:35
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.07%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.44%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -5.70%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 02:45
Pinnacle1.76I 56.82%NM 54.56%EV -2.90%E -1.65%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.17%EV -3.19%E -0.670%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.27%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 02:45
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 55.54%EV -6.77%E -4.00%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -3.39%E -0.714%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-18 02:35
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -6.44%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 02:50
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -8.48%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 02:40
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -8.97%E -5.44%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -6.44%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-18 02:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -10.63%E -6.56%K -17.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -6.44%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-18 02:45
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -10.63%E -6.56%K -17.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -8.48%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -6.92%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-10 03:24
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -10.51%E -2.39%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-18 02:45
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 54.93%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.61%EV -9.49%E -2.13%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 02:50
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -8.97%E -5.44%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -8.48%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-18 02:50
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -9.49%E -2.13%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-18 02:35
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -9.49%E -2.13%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-18 02:35
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.38%EV -7.46%E -1.64%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -9.37%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-18 02:45
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -10.51%E -2.39%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -10.60%E -2.90%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-18 02:55
BetUS1.69I 59.17%NM 54.51%EV -6.77%E -4.00%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.25%EV -7.46%E -1.64%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -10.60%E -2.90%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 02:55
Betclic (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 54.83%EV -10.08%E -6.18%K -15.99%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.55%EV -11.53%E -2.65%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.62%EV -11.09%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-18 02:48
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -14.58%E -3.47%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-18 02:45
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -10.63%E -6.56%K -17.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -11.94%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -11.82%E -3.28%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-15 03:33
NetBet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.17%EV -12.83%E -8.12%K -22.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.27%EV -12.55%E -2.92%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.56%EV -13.05%E -3.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-18 02:54
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -10.51%E -2.39%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -14.27%E -4.08%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-18 02:45
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 52.94%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -14.58%E -3.47%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -16.72%E -4.92%K -6.97%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-18 02:45
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.94%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -14.58%E -3.47%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -16.72%E -4.92%K -6.97%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-18 02:40
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 52.94%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -14.58%E -3.47%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -16.72%E -4.92%K -6.97%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-18 02:45
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.94%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -14.58%E -3.47%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -16.72%E -4.92%K -6.97%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-18 02:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.77%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-07-18 02:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.77%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-07-18 02:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.77%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-07-18 02:55
Matchbook1.77I 56.50%NM 55.77%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-07-18 02:50
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-07-18 02:45
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 55.58%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46%2.2%2026-07-18 02:50