Language:English
Atlas v Guadalajara
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atlas (Local)
Prediction 18.74%5.34fair odd
EV +2.51%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.562%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 5.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.57%18.73%18.72%20.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.874.805.4723.26%20.52%20.83%18.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Guadalajara (Visit)
Prediction 56.23%1.78fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -4.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.59%56.25%56.19%58.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.641.651.7265.79%60.95%60.61%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.03%4.00fair odd
EV +0.119%
Edge +0.030%
Kelly +0.040%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.87%25.02%25.10%26.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.663.704.0030.77%27.35%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlas (Local): 18.74%; Guadalajara (Visit): 56.23%; Draw: 25.03%. For Atlas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.34. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.51%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.47I 18.28%NM 17.66%EV +2.51%E +0.459%K +0.562%G +0.014% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.19%EV -6.66%E -4.01%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.15%EV +0.119%E +0.030%K +0.040%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 21:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.47I 18.28%NM 17.66%EV +2.51%E +0.459%K +0.562%G +0.014% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.19%EV -6.66%E -4.01%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.15%EV +0.119%E +0.030%K +0.040%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 21:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -0.673%E -0.127%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.56%EV -10.60%E -6.66%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -2.38%E -0.611%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -1.61%E -0.307%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -7.22%E -4.38%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.01%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.84%EV -6.66%E -4.01%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.30%EV -2.55%E -0.490%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.32%EV -4.97%E -2.94%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -2.55%E -0.490%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -7.22%E -4.38%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.17I 19.34%NM 18.63%EV -3.11%E -0.601%K -0.746%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.99%EV -4.97%E -2.94%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.38%EV -1.13%E -0.287%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-08 00:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.16%EV -4.42%E -0.867%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.81%EV -8.35%E -5.12%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-08 00:53 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.07I 19.72%NM 18.93%EV -4.98%E -0.983%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.81%EV -3.29%E -1.91%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -6.30%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -3.64%E -0.944%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-08 00:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.30%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -7.22%E -4.38%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 23:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.30%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-07 20:42 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.30%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 00:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.30%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.07%EV -5.53%E -3.29%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.30%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -9.47%E -5.88%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -6.30%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.87%EV -10.03%E -6.27%K -16.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.64%E -2.37%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-08 00:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -6.30%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.53%EV -11.72%E -7.46%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.72%EV -7.23%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -5.53%E -3.29%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -11.14%E -3.14%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.72%EV -7.23%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -5.53%E -3.29%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -11.14%E -3.14%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -8.17%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.59%EV -3.85%E -2.25%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 00:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -8.17%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.59%EV -3.85%E -2.25%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 00:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -8.17%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -8.35%E -5.12%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -8.64%E -2.37%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-08 00:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -10.04%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 20:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -10.04%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 00:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -10.04%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 00:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -10.04%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 00:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -10.04%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 00:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -10.04%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 00:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -10.04%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 00:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -10.04%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -10.03%E -6.27%K -16.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -10.04%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -10.03%E -6.27%K -16.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.98%E -2.31%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-08 00:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -10.98%E -2.31%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.42%EV -6.66%E -4.01%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.64%E -2.37%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-08 00:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -10.98%E -2.31%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -11.72%E -7.46%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -11.92%E -2.54%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.42%EV -7.78%E -4.75%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-08 00:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -11.92%E -2.54%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.42%EV -7.78%E -4.75%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-08 00:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.27%EV -11.92%E -2.54%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 56.48%EV -14.53%E -9.56%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.25%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -13.79%E -3.00%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -8.91%E -5.50%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-08 00:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -13.79%E -3.00%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -8.91%E -5.50%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -13.79%E -3.00%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.84%EV -9.47%E -5.88%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -13.79%E -3.00%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.84%EV -9.47%E -5.88%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -13.79%E -3.00%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.84%EV -9.47%E -5.88%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-08 00:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -15.67%E -3.48%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -7.78%E -4.75%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 20:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -15.67%E -3.48%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.48%EV -11.16%E -7.06%K -19.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-03-08 00:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.41%EV -15.67%E -3.48%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.63%EV -11.72%E -7.46%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-03-08 00:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.04%EV -15.67%E -3.48%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 54.59%EV -11.72%E -7.46%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%EV -18.65%E -5.74%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-03-07 21:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -19.41%E -4.51%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.05%EV -10.03%E -6.27%K -16.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.47%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-07 20:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.38% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.8% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.52% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12% | 1.1% | 2026-03-08 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.52% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12% | 1.1% | 2026-03-08 00:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.52% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12% | 1.1% | 2026-03-08 00:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.66% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.55% | 1.8% | 2026-03-08 01:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.44% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.14% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.42% | 2.4% | 2026-03-08 00:54 |