Language:English
Waterford FC v Dundalk
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Waterford FC (Local)
Prediction 22.55%4.44fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.325%
Kelly +0.418%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.48%22.52%22.79%24.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.154.104.5027.40%24.10%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dundalk (Visit)
Prediction 53.64%1.86fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -6.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.65%53.58%55.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.701.7762.50%58.90%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.81%4.20fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -0.758%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.97%23.83%23.63%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.793.754.0730.30%26.38%26.67%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Waterford FC (Local): 22.55%; Dundalk (Visit): 53.64%; Draw: 23.81%. For Waterford FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +1.46%E +0.325%K +0.418%G +0.006% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -0.791%E -0.180%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.95%EV -10.96%E -6.60%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.37I 22.88%NM 21.96%EV -1.47%E -0.336%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.22%EV -5.06%E -2.86%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -4.04%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.71%EV -1.92%E -0.441%K -0.573%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.94%EV -12.03%E -7.34%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.71%EV -1.92%E -0.441%K -0.573%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.94%EV -12.03%E -7.34%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -2.37%E -0.547%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -10.42%E -6.24%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-04 15:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -3.05%E -0.708%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.36%EV -6.67%E -3.83%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-04 15:53 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -3.05%E -0.708%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.59%EV -8.28%E -4.84%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.69%EV -6.18%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -3.05%E -0.708%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.46%EV -8.28%E -4.84%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-04 15:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -3.05%E -0.708%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.05%EV -14.18%E -8.86%K -23.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.47%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -5.30%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 15:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -5.30%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -7.55%E -1.84%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.20%EV -5.06%E -2.86%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -7.55%E -1.84%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.20%EV -5.06%E -2.86%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -7.55%E -1.84%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.20%EV -5.06%E -2.86%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -7.55%E -1.84%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.83%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.07I 24.57%NM 22.97%EV -8.23%E -2.02%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.05%EV -7.20%E -4.16%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 22.97%EV -3.08%E -0.758%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.81%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -9.81%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.45%EV -7.74%E -4.50%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-04 15:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -9.81%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.45%EV -7.74%E -4.50%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-04 15:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -9.81%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.83%EV -6.67%E -3.83%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.81%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.81%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.28%EV -7.74%E -4.50%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -8.32%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -9.81%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -9.81%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.42%E -6.24%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -10.94%E -2.77%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.86%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -10.94%E -2.77%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.86%EV -6.13%E -3.50%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -12.06%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.52%EV -6.67%E -3.83%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -12.06%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.85%EV -10.42%E -6.24%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.49%EV -12.06%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.15%EV -11.49%E -6.97%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -14.32%E -3.77%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.96%EV -7.74%E -4.50%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -14.32%E -3.77%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -14.32%E -3.77%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -14.32%E -3.77%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -14.32%E -3.77%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -8.81%E -5.18%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-04 15:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.94%EV -14.32%E -3.77%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 53.49%EV -12.57%E -7.71%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.56%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.47%EV -15.45%E -4.12%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 52.00%EV -13.10%E -8.09%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.53%EV -21.42%E -6.49%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 18.7% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.12%EV -17.70%E -4.85%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.40%EV -9.88%E -5.88%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.36% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 1.1% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.36% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 1.1% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.36% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 1.1% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.36% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13% | 1.1% | 2026-05-04 15:55 |