The School of Odds

Dundalk v Drogheda United

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 18:47 UTC

Final: Dundalk 1–2 Drogheda United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Dundalk (Local)

Prediction 57.14%1.75fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -2.74%
Kelly -6.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.25%57.12%57.14%58.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.541.611.621.6765%62%62%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Drogheda United (Visit)

Prediction 18.67%5.36fair odd
EV -0.127%
Edge -0.024%
Kelly -0.029%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%18.67%18.60%20.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.404.864.905.3523%21%20%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.20%4.13fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -0.804%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.34%24.21%24.26%25.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.763.804.0029%27%26%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -4.58%E -2.74%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.22%E -0.804%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 18:43
Pinnacle1.65I 60.61%NM 58.07%EV -5.72%E -3.47%K -8.81%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.91%EV -0.127%E -0.024%K -0.029%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.02%EV -3.46%E -0.867%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-10 18:44
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.72%E -3.47%K -8.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -3.22%E -0.804%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 18:44
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 56.89%EV -5.72%E -3.47%K -8.81%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -4.79%E -0.940%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-10 18:44
LowVig.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 56.89%EV -5.72%E -3.47%K -8.81%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -4.79%E -0.940%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-10 18:44
BetAnything1.65I 60.61%NM 56.89%EV -5.72%E -3.47%K -8.81%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -4.79%E -0.940%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-10 18:44
1xBet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.04%EV -6.30%E -3.84%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.27%EV -4.42%E -0.863%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.68%EV -8.30%E -2.19%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 18:44
Marathon Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.26%EV -6.87%E -4.21%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.30%EV -4.79%E -0.940%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.43%EV -7.57%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 18:43
Bet Right1.63I 61.35%NM 56.25%EV -6.87%E -4.21%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -14.13%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-10 18:44
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 55.48%EV -6.87%E -4.21%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -11.33%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.48%EV -14.11%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-10 18:45
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -2.93%E -0.563%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-10 18:45
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-10 18:44
Unibet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.10%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 18:45
Unibet (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.10%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 18:45
Unibet (NL)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.10%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 18:45
Casumo1.62I 61.73%NM 57.10%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 18:45
TABtouch1.62I 61.73%NM 57.10%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 18:45
Grosvenor1.62I 61.73%NM 57.10%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 18:45
Svenska Spel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.10%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 18:44
betPARX1.62I 61.73%NM 57.10%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 18:45
ATG (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.10%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 18:44
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.66%EV -7.59%E -1.53%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-10 18:44
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.66%EV -7.59%E -1.53%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-10 18:45
BetUS1.62I 61.73%NM 56.92%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -8.53%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-10 18:44
PointsBet (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -11.33%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-10 18:44
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -11.33%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -9.27%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-10 18:45
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -11.33%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -10.48%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-10 18:45
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 55.94%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -10.39%E -2.17%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -12.90%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-10 18:45
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -9.27%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-10 18:44
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -7.44%E -4.59%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -12.90%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-10 18:44
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 57.31%EV -8.01%E -4.98%K -13.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.09%EV -4.79%E -0.940%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -9.27%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-10 18:45
BetRivers1.61I 62.11%NM 57.03%EV -8.01%E -4.98%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -10.39%E -2.17%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -6.85%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-10 18:42
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -8.01%E -4.98%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -15.99%E -3.55%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -12.90%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-10 18:44
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -2.93%E -0.563%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -10.48%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-10 18:45
Betway1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-10 18:44
LeoVegas (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.00%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -10.39%E -2.17%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -8.06%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-10 18:44
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -14.13%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -5.64%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-10 18:44
Everygame1.60I 62.50%NM 56.87%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -11.69%E -3.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-10 18:44
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -12.90%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-10 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -6.66%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -12.90%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-10 18:45
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -14.13%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.90%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-10 18:45
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -14.13%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.90%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-10 18:44
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 55.74%EV -8.58%E -5.36%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -11.33%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -15.32%E -4.38%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-10 18:45
Virgin Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 57.01%EV -9.72%E -6.15%K -16.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.33%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -9.27%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-10 18:45
LiveScore Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 57.01%EV -9.72%E -6.15%K -16.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.33%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -9.27%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-10 18:45
SportsBet1.56I 64.10%NM 56.47%EV -10.87%E -6.97%K -19.41%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.35%EV -10.39%E -2.17%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -15.32%E -4.38%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-10 18:44
Unibet (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.42%EV -10.87%E -6.97%K -19.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.13%EV -14.13%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.45%EV -12.90%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-10 18:44
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.30%EV -10.87%E -6.97%K -19.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.96%EV -17.86%E -4.06%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -10.48%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-10 18:44
PMU (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 57.11%EV -12.01%E -7.80%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%EV -14.13%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -10.48%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-10 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.06%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-07-10 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 57.89%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-07-10 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.71I 58.48%NM 57.89%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-07-10 18:45
Matchbook1.69I 59.17%NM 58.35%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-07-10 18:45