Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bohemians v Derry City

2026-08-21 18:45 UTC — League of Ireland

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bohemians (Local)

Prediction 43.79%2.28fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.456%
Kelly -0.818%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.98%44.04%43.80%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.042.052.2654.64%49.12%48.78%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Derry City (Visit)

Prediction 27.94%3.58fair odd
EV +1.98%
Edge +0.542%
Kelly +0.746%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.14%27.67%27.99%29.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.303.6533.33%30.02%30.30%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.60%28.29%28.20%28.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.283.4033.33%30.78%30.49%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bohemians (Local): 43.79%; Derry City (Visit): 27.94%; Draw: 28.27%. For Derry City (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.65, producing a positive expected value of +1.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -14.61%E -7.49%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV +1.98%E +0.542%K +0.746%G +0.015%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-13 19:34
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -14.61%E -7.49%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV +1.98%E +0.542%K +0.746%G +0.015%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-13 19:34
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.85%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 21:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.39%EV -19.86%E -10.85%K -23.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.51%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.10%EV -9.54%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-13 19:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.20%EV -18.55%E -9.97%K -21.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-13 19:34
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.23%EV -4.97%E -2.29%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.17%EV -6.96%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.60%EV -7.28%E -2.22%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-13 23:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.85%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.12%EV -7.24%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.46%EV -7.28%E -2.22%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-13 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -5.85%E -2.72%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.54%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-13 21:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.04%E -3.83%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-13 21:34
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -10.23%E -4.99%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-13 21:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 46.89%EV -19.42%E -10.56%K -23.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.96%EV -9.54%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-13 19:34
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.98%EV -1.03%E -0.456%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.10%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.92%EV -7.28%E -2.22%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 23:15
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.22%EV -10.23%E -4.99%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-13 22:04
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.69%EV -11.10%E -5.47%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%EV -11.99%E -3.81%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%EV -10.95%E -3.48%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-13 21:35
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -12.42%E -6.21%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -16.18%E -5.39%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -15.19%E -5.06%K -7.60%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-13 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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