Language:English
Incheon United v Daejeon Citizen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Incheon United (Local)
Prediction 30.95%3.23fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.499%
Kelly -0.728%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%31.00%30.94%33.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.852.873.1839.22%35.05%34.84%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daejeon Citizen (Visit)
Prediction 40.31%2.48fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.847%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.85%40.28%40.37%41.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.312.312.4348.78%43.29%43.29%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.75%3.48fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.664%
Kelly -0.941%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.79%28.72%28.69%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.103.4034.48%31.90%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Incheon United (Local): 30.95%; Daejeon Citizen (Visit): 40.31%; Draw: 28.75%. For Incheon United (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.18, with an expected value of -1.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.43%EV -1.59%E -0.499%K -0.728%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.33%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.24%EV -4.85%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-20 09:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -2.52%E -0.799%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.03%EV -4.88%E -2.07%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -9.45%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 09:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -2.52%E -0.799%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.03%EV -4.88%E -2.07%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -9.45%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 09:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.06%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -5.28%E -2.25%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -6.57%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -4.06%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.01%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 30.85%EV -6.23%E -2.06%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.94%EV -5.69%E -2.43%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.01%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 09:48 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.81%EV -6.54%E -2.17%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.11%EV -6.49%E -2.80%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -8.01%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 09:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -5.28%E -2.25%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.01%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.30%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.57%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.30%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.57%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-20 09:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.30%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.01%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-20 09:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 39.83%EV -6.89%E -2.98%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.49%EV -10.31%E -3.30%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-20 09:43 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.30%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.76%E -4.59%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.30%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.76%E -4.59%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 09:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -8.71%E -2.95%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -9.31%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.45%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -8.71%E -2.95%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -9.31%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.45%E -3.00%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -10.25%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -2.26%E -0.664%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -10.25%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.81%EV -5.28%E -2.25%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -3.70%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 09:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.25%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.30%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.01%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -10.25%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -6.57%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.87%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.31%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.87%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.31%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.87%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -8.01%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 09:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.42%EV -10.87%E -3.78%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 41.13%EV -14.15%E -6.64%K -12.52%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 28.45%EV -11.46%E -3.72%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-20 09:33 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.18%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -9.31%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.18%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -9.31%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.64%EV -11.18%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.53%EV -12.54%E -5.78%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-20 09:58 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -11.80%E -4.14%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -5.28%E -2.25%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -5.13%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-20 09:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.39%EV -11.80%E -4.14%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -8.01%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.08%EV -11.80%E -4.14%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 41.82%EV -17.37%E -8.48%K -16.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.11%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -13.35%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -4.07%E -1.71%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.57%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 09:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -13.35%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.30%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -6.57%E -2.02%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-20 09:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -13.35%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -7.30%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.01%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-20 09:43 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.49%EV -13.35%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.44%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-20 09:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -14.90%E -5.42%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -9.31%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -10.88%E -3.51%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-20 09:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.85%EV -2.06%E -0.847%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -17.99%E -6.79%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -12.32%E -4.04%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.54%EV -18.61%E -7.08%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.06%EV -4.07%E -1.71%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -13.76%E -4.59%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.00%EV -18.61%E -7.08%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.07%EV -8.10%E -3.55%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.93%EV -13.76%E -4.59%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-13 10:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 33.57%EV -21.08%E -8.27%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 36.90%EV -6.49%E -2.80%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.52%EV -16.63%E -5.74%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98% | 1.1% | 2026-09-20 09:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84% | 1.6% | 2026-09-20 09:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84% | 1.6% | 2026-09-20 09:59 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84% | 1.6% | 2026-09-20 09:59 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.19% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45% | 2.0% | 2026-09-20 09:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.48% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.97% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.55% | 2.5% | 2026-09-20 09:59 |