Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shimizu S Pulse v JEF United Chiba

2026-09-19 09:30 UTC — J League

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shimizu S Pulse (Local)

Prediction 49.86%2.01fair odd
EV -5.77%
Edge -3.05%
Kelly -6.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.19%49.91%49.76%50.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.841.851.8957.14%54.40%54.05%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JEF United Chiba (Visit)

Prediction 23.76%4.21fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.10%23.74%23.85%24.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.853.854.0227.78%25.99%25.97%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.38%3.79fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.288%
Kelly -0.393%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.43%26.35%26.39%27.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.473.403.7531.25%28.81%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Shimizu S Pulse (Local): 49.86%; JEF United Chiba (Visit): 23.76%; Draw: 26.38%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.75, with an expected value of -1.08%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.50%EV -5.77%E -3.05%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.92%EV -5.18%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.59%EV -1.61%E -0.431%K -0.589%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 11:00
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.73%EV -6.27%E -3.33%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.94%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -1.08%E -0.288%K -0.393%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 09:55
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.51%EV -6.27%E -3.33%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.62%EV -4.47%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.87%EV -3.19%E -0.870%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 10:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.05%EV -6.27%E -3.33%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.13%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 10:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.05%EV -6.27%E -3.33%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.13%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 10:51
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.77%E -3.62%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -4.94%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 09:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.64%EV -3.98%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 10:35
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.94%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 09:16
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.69%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 14:45
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 10:06
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 10:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.32%E -1.88%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 10:06
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.69%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 11:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.69%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 11:11
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.69%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 11:11
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.69%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 11:11
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.94%EV -8.26%E -4.49%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.69%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -6.36%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 09:55
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -8.76%E -4.79%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -4.94%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 09:20
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -10.26%E -5.70%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -9.69%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 09:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.63%EV -10.26%E -5.70%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -13.26%E -3.63%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.89%EV -8.99%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 10:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.55%EV -11.25%E -6.32%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -14.45%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-13 10:06
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.63%EV -11.75%E -6.64%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -12.07%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-13 10:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.63%EV -11.75%E -6.64%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -12.07%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-13 10:04
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.19%EV -12.75%E -7.29%K -17.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%EV -14.45%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.90%EV -15.59%E -4.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-13 09:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.07%10.9%2026-09-13 14:50
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 48.67%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.13%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.20%16.7%2026-09-13 10:06