The School of Odds
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Nagoya Grampus v Fagiano Okayama

2026-08-29 10:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nagoya Grampus (Local)

Prediction 36.13%2.77fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.74%36.03%36.24%37.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.532.552.6843.48%39.60%39.22%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fagiano Okayama (Visit)

Prediction 35.54%2.81fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.11%35.56%35.47%36.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.562.542.7040.82%39.12%39.37%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.32%3.53fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.47%28.40%28.29%29.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.153.4033.33%31.31%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 36.13%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 35.54%; Draw: 28.32%. For Nagoya Grampus (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.68, with an expected value of -3.16%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.62%EV -3.16%E -1.18%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.89%EV -5.45%E -2.05%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.49%EV -5.12%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 11:50
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.38%EV -5.33%E -2.03%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.43%EV -4.39%E -1.63%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -4.27%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -5.33%E -2.03%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.91%EV -7.59%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.46%EV -7.10%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 11:50
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -6.05%E -2.33%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -4.03%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 11:49
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -6.05%E -2.33%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -11.14%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 12:14
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -6.05%E -2.33%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -11.14%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 12:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -6.05%E -2.33%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -11.14%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 12:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -6.05%E -2.33%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -11.14%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 12:15
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.67%EV -6.77%E -2.63%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.12%EV -6.88%E -2.62%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -10.79%E -3.42%K -5.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 11:54
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -7.86%E -3.08%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.59%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -5.12%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 11:50
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -7.86%E -3.08%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -7.59%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 11:50
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -7.86%E -3.08%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.97%EV -6.88%E -2.62%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.79%E -3.42%K -5.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 11:54
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -9.66%E -3.87%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -7.59%E -2.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 11:49
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.66%E -3.87%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -11.14%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 12:00
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -9.66%E -3.87%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.14%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -13.28%E -5.53%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 34.74%EV -10.07%E -3.98%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 28.63%EV -13.05%E -4.25%K -6.31%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-22 11:53
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.31%EV -13.28%E -5.53%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.57%EV -12.92%E -5.27%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-22 11:54
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.98%EV -13.28%E -5.53%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%EV -12.92%E -5.27%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -15.03%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-22 11:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.63%EV -15.08%E -6.42%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.14%EV -12.92%E -5.27%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.23%EV -13.62%E -4.46%K -6.64%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-22 11:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.82%EV -16.89%E -7.34%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -9.36%E -3.67%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.06%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-22 11:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.60%12.1%2026-08-22 12:30
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 35.96%2.46I 40.65%NM 35.08%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.96%15.9%2026-08-22 11:55

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