The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

JEF United Chiba v FC Machida Zelvia

2026-08-15 10:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JEF United Chiba (Local)

Prediction 25.40%3.94fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.17%25.49%25.25%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.553.603.7730.77%28.16%27.78%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)

Prediction 45.59%2.19fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -4.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.39%45.48%45.58%46.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.012.032.0952.08%49.75%49.26%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.01%3.45fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.400%
Kelly -0.567%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.81%29.03%29.17%30.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.103.4033.33%31.89%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: JEF United Chiba (Local): 25.40%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 45.59%; Draw: 29.01%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.40, with an expected value of -1.36%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.77I 26.53%NM 25.32%EV -4.25%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.67%EV -4.72%E -2.26%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.01%EV -4.55%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 13:14
Pinnacle🎯3.77I 26.53%NM 25.26%EV -4.25%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.79%EV -5.17%E -2.49%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.95%EV -4.55%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 12:00
NordicBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.20%EV -6.54%E -3.19%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 11:35
Betsson🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.20%EV -6.54%E -3.19%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 11:34
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -5.17%E -2.49%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV -1.36%E -0.400%K -0.567%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 12:24
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.09%EV -7.45%E -3.67%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -2.81%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 12:24
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.82%E -4.41%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 12:23
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -6.54%E -3.19%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 11:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -6.54%E -3.19%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 11:44
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -6.54%E -3.19%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 11:45
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -6.54%E -3.19%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 11:50
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.82%E -4.41%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 12:19
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -11.10%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.82%E -4.41%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 12:25
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.10%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -11.10%E -5.69%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 12:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 25.17%EV -11.61%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.63%EV -12.47%E -6.49%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-08 11:40
Unibet (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -12.37%E -3.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.40%EV -12.01%E -6.22%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-08 11:34
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.14%EV -14.91%E -4.45%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.14%EV -11.56%E -5.96%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.71%EV -11.51%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-08 11:35
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.19%EV -16.18%E -4.90%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.01%EV -12.47%E -6.49%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.81%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-08 11:35
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -17.45%E -5.37%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.44%EV -11.10%E -5.69%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.89%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-08 12:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 26.33%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.68%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.99%10.1%2026-08-08 13:20