Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Tokyo v FC Machida Zelvia

2026-08-08 10:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

39%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Tokyo (Local)

Prediction 38.82%2.58fair odd

EV -4.51%

Edge -1.83%

Kelly -3.09%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.36%38.87%38.85%39.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.342.382.4645.45%42.66%42.11%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)

Prediction 30.66%3.26fair odd

EV -4.66%

Edge -1.50%

Kelly -2.21%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.86%30.55%30.67%31.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.972.983.1135.71%33.69%33.61%32.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.52%3.28fair odd

EV -3.85%

Edge -1.22%

Kelly -1.79%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.95%30.58%30.48%30.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.993.023.1535.71%33.40%33.06%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Tokyo (Local): 38.82%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 30.66%; Draw: 30.52%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.15, with an expected value of -3.85%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -4.51%E -1.83%K -3.09%G +0.000%	3.11I 32.15%NM 30.70%EV -4.66%E -1.50%K -2.21%G +0.000%	3.13I 31.95%NM 30.50%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.09%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-01 11:09
Coolbet	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.94%EV -4.90%E -2.00%K -3.38%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.77%EV -4.96%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -3.85%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-01 11:10
Pinnacle	2.44I 40.98%NM 38.85%EV -5.28%E -2.17%K -3.67%G +0.000%	3.09I 32.36%NM 30.68%EV -5.27%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%	3.11I 32.15%NM 30.48%EV -5.07%E -1.63%K -2.40%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-01 12:00
SportsBet	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.50%E -2.13%K -3.17%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -6.90%E -2.26%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-01 11:10
Marathon Bet	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%	3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -6.80%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000%	3.06I 32.68%NM 30.47%EV -6.59%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-01 11:38
FanDuel	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.03%E -2.68%K -4.01%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.43%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-08-01 11:09
Bet Right	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.95%EV -8.78%E -3.74%K -6.50%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -9.56%E -3.24%K -4.90%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -6.90%E -2.26%K -3.37%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-08-01 11:10
Paddy Power	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.09%E -3.83%K -5.84%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -8.43%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%	11.3%	2026-08-01 11:14
Winamax (DE)	2.25I 44.44%NM 38.98%EV -12.66%E -5.63%K -10.13%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 30.77%EV -12.63%E -4.43%K -6.83%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%	14.0%	2026-08-01 10:59
Sky Bet	2.25I 44.44%NM 38.36%EV -12.66%E -5.63%K -10.13%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -14.16%E -5.06%K -7.87%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -14.53%E -5.19%K -8.07%G +0.000%	15.9%	2026-08-01 11:09
Betclic (FR)	2.23I 44.84%NM 39.23%EV -13.44%E -6.03%K -10.92%G +0.000%	2.93I 34.13%NM 29.86%EV -10.17%E -3.47%K -5.27%G +0.000%	2.83I 35.34%NM 30.91%EV -13.61%E -4.81%K -7.44%G +0.000%	14.3%	2026-08-01 10:59
Winamax (FR)	2.20I 45.45%NM 39.10%EV -14.60%E -6.64%K -12.17%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 30.72%EV -14.16%E -5.06%K -7.87%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 30.18%EV -13.00%E -4.56%K -7.03%G +0.000%	16.3%	2026-08-01 10:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.