Language:English
Fagiano Okayama v Kyoto Purple Sanga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fagiano Okayama (Local)
Prediction 50.21%1.99fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.808%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.44%50.22%50.20%52.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.871.871.9657.14%53.49%53.48%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)
Prediction 23.45%4.26fair odd
EV -0.101%
Edge -0.024%
Kelly -0.031%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%23.39%23.50%24.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.863.814.2627.78%25.93%26.21%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.34%3.80fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.472%
Kelly -0.645%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%26.39%26.30%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.453.403.7330.30%29.02%29.41%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 50.21%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 23.45%; Draw: 26.34%. For Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.264. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.260, with an expected value of -0.101%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -1.58%E -0.808%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -1.58%E -0.808%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -2.59%E -1.33%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -2.59%E -1.33%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.54%EV -2.59%E -1.33%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-16 00:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -3.09%E -1.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -3.09%E -1.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -3.09%E -1.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -3.09%E -1.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -3.09%E -1.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -3.09%E -1.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.67%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-14 09:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -14.41%E -3.95%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -14.41%E -3.95%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -14.41%E -3.95%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-16 00:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-16 10:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -4.60%E -2.42%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-14 09:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.70%EV -5.10%E -2.70%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-13 10:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.77%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.94%EV -2.45%E -0.588%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.29%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-18 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-18 06:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.08%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -1.51%E -0.359%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%EV -3.87%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-18 12:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.08%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -1.51%E -0.359%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%EV -3.87%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-18 12:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.08%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -1.51%E -0.359%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%EV -3.87%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-18 12:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -3.87%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-18 11:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-18 12:27 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 12:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.00%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-14 09:41 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.67%EV -6.61%E -3.55%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.56%EV -0.101%E -0.024%K -0.031%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.77%EV -1.76%E -0.472%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-18 10:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-18 10:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.69%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-18 06:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.69%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -7.37%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-18 06:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-17 16:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-17 16:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-17 16:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-17 16:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-14 09:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-18 10:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.95%EV -5.03%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.26%EV -6.77%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-18 12:23 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-17 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-18 12:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-18 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-18 12:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -13.23%E -3.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-18 12:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -15.58%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-16 10:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -9.62%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-18 06:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.91%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -14.41%E -3.95%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.75%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-18 06:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.44%EV -11.12%E -6.28%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 23.31%EV -10.18%E -2.66%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-18 06:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.98%EV -11.63%E -6.61%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-18 10:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -12.13%E -6.93%K -16.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -1.51%E -0.359%K -0.471%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-17 22:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -12.13%E -6.93%K -16.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-17 16:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.59% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.28% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14% | 2.0% | 2026-09-18 14:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.01% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47% | 2.1% | 2026-09-18 15:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.19% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.74% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.07% | 2.3% | 2026-09-18 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.14% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.14% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.14% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26% | 2.9% | 2026-09-18 14:30 |