Language:English
Venezia v Avellino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Venezia (Local)
Prediction 70.24%1.42fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -12.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.31%70.07%70.27%71.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.321.331.3684.03%75.53%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Avellino (Visit)
Prediction 10.68%9.36fair odd
EV +6.50%
Edge +0.652%
Kelly +0.725%
Growth +0.047%
assuming max odds 9.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.64%10.76%10.60%12.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.318.259.9714.29%12.03%12.12%10.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.08%5.24fair odd
EV -0.794%
Edge -0.153%
Kelly -0.189%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.23%19.17%19.13%20.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.704.605.2023.81%21.28%21.74%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Venezia (Local): 70.24%; Avellino (Visit): 10.68%; Draw: 19.08%. For Avellino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.36. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.97, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.21%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 9.97I 10.03%NM 9.64%EV +6.50%E +0.652%K +0.725%G +0.047% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 19.15%EV -4.23%E -0.842%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.97%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.01%EV +1.48%E +0.156%K +0.174%G +0.003% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -4.61%E -0.922%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -7.28%E -5.52%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +1.48%E +0.156%K +0.174%G +0.003% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -8.42%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.66%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV +1.48%E +0.156%K +0.174%G +0.003% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -14.15%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.42%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.56%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -4.61%E -0.922%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.42%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.56%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -4.61%E -0.922%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.73%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -4.61%E -0.922%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.04%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -9.38%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.50%EV -7.99%E -6.10%K -25.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.24%EV -8.42%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.36%EV -7.99%E -6.10%K -25.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -9.38%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -14.15%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -14.15%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -14.15%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -8.42%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.39%E -7.28%K -32.38%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -3.86%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -14.15%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.16%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.60%EV -6.00%E -0.681%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.24%EV -7.47%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.85%EV -7.28%E -5.52%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.54%EV -6.53%E -0.746%K -0.843%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.75%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.02%EV -8.13%E -0.946%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.23%EV -0.794%E -0.153%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -9.20%E -1.08%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.61%E -0.922%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.92%EV -7.28%E -5.52%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -9.20%E -1.08%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -8.42%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-03 18:53 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.93%EV -7.99%E -6.10%K -25.76%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -9.20%E -1.08%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -9.38%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.20%E -1.08%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -9.38%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.50%EV -7.99%E -6.10%K -25.76%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -9.20%E -1.08%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.91%EV -5.88%E -4.39%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -11.87%E -1.44%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.61%E -0.922%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.44%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.94%EV -11.87%E -1.44%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.62%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.05%EV -7.28%E -5.52%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.28%EV -12.41%E -1.51%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.68%EV -5.56%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.05%EV -7.28%E -5.52%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.28%EV -12.41%E -1.51%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.68%EV -5.56%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-03 18:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -14.54%E -1.82%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -4.61%E -0.922%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.10%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -14.54%E -1.82%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.58%EV -16.06%E -3.65%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.43%EV -9.39%E -7.28%K -32.38%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -14.54%E -1.82%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.53%EV -17.96%E -4.18%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 70.07%EV -13.61%E -11.06%K -59.15%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.77%EV -14.54%E -1.82%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.15%EV -14.15%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-03-03 18:58 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 69.83%EV -16.41%E -13.79%K -86.39%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.39%EV -14.54%E -1.82%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 19.78%EV -19.87%E -4.73%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 70.22%EV -11.50%E -9.13%K -44.22%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.34%EV -16.68%E -2.14%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.43%EV -8.42%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.70%EV -10.09%E -7.89%K -36.05%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.51%EV -17.21%E -2.22%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -9.38%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-03 18:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 18:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -4.47%E -3.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -14.15%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -5.18%E -3.83%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -14.15%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -8.69%E -6.68%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -19.88%E -2.65%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -9.38%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -6.58%E -4.95%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -25.22%E -3.60%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -14.15%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.33% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.37% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.30% | 1.6% | 2026-03-03 19:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.02% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.66% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32% | 3.5% | 2026-03-03 19:00 |