Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spezia v Empoli

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spezia (Local)

Prediction 36.26%2.76fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.20%36.31%36.15%37.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.512.502.6843.48%39.86%40.00%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Empoli (Visit)

Prediction 31.90%3.13fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.670%
Kelly -0.994%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.74%31.89%31.90%34.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.882.903.0740.00%34.76%34.48%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.84%3.14fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.417%
Kelly -0.615%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.34%31.80%31.95%33.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.862.853.1040.82%34.95%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spezia (Local): 36.26%; Empoli (Visit): 31.90%; Draw: 31.84%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.11%EV -2.84%E -1.06%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.52%EV -2.06%E -0.670%K -0.994%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.37%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-17 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.95%EV -3.92%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -3.92%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-17 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -3.92%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-17 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-17 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 18:35
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.66%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.40%EV -5.25%E -1.77%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 18:50
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.66%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-17 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-17 18:40
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-17 18:55
1xBet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -6.10%E -2.35%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.19%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -2.88%E -0.945%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 18:50
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -6.46%E -2.50%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -7.02%E -2.41%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:35
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -6.46%E -2.50%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -7.02%E -2.41%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:35
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -7.55%E -2.96%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -1.29%E -0.417%K -0.615%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 18:50
Bovada🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.25%EV -7.91%E -3.11%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.54%EV -9.89%E -3.49%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-17 18:39
BetUS🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.25%EV -7.91%E -3.11%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.54%EV -9.89%E -3.49%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-17 18:40
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-17 18:30
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.08%E -3.18%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.08%E -3.18%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-17 18:55
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-17 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-17 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-17 18:35
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.08%E -3.18%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-17 18:35
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.27%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-17 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.27%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-17 18:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.27%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-17 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -14.03%E -5.20%K -8.25%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-17 18:40
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -14.03%E -5.20%K -8.25%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-17 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.68%EV -10.09%E -4.07%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.68%EV -10.09%E -4.07%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.17%EV -10.45%E -4.23%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.68%EV -10.03%E -3.56%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.14%EV -11.48%E -4.13%K -6.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-17 18:32
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:33
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:50
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-17 18:50
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -12.44%E -4.52%K -7.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 23:09
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.43%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.56%EV -12.27%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.01%EV -16.26%E -6.18%K -9.97%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-17 18:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -12.99%E -5.41%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-17 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -12.99%E -5.41%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.37%EV -13.86%E -5.13%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.21%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-17 18:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.50%EV -12.99%E -5.41%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.08%EV -20.24%E -8.10%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.43%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%17.4%2026-03-17 18:46
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.25%EV -13.71%E -5.76%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.93%EV -16.41%E -6.26%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.81%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-17 18:39
NetBet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 36.25%EV -14.07%E -5.94%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 31.58%EV -13.22%E -4.86%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.17%EV -14.98%E -5.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-17 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 35.20%EV -16.61%E -7.22%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 31.75%EV -18.65%E -7.31%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 33.05%EV -21.99%E -8.97%K -15.16%G +0.000%23.5%2026-03-17 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%1.0%2026-03-17 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%1.0%2026-03-17 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.26%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%1.3%2026-03-17 18:55
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.26%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%1.3%2026-03-17 18:55
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 35.57%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.48%2.6%2026-03-17 18:55