La escuela de los momios

Spezia v Empoli

Inicio: 2026-03-17 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Spezia (Local)

Predicción 36.26%2.76momio equitativo
EV -2.84%
Ventaja -1.06%
Kelly -1.69%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.20%36.31%36.15%37.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.512.502.6843.48%39.86%40.00%37.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empoli (Visitante)

Predicción 31.90%3.13momio equitativo
EV -2.06%
Ventaja -0.670%
Kelly -0.994%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.74%31.89%31.90%34.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.882.903.0740.00%34.76%34.48%32.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.84%3.14momio equitativo
EV -1.29%
Ventaja -0.417%
Kelly -0.615%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.34%31.80%31.95%33.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.452.862.853.1040.82%34.95%35.09%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.68I 37.31%NM 36.11%EV -2.84%E -1.06%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.52%EV -2.06%E -0.670%K -0.994%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.37%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-17 18:45
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.95%EV -3.92%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 18:35
LowVig.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -3.92%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-17 18:35
BetOnline.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -3.92%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-17 18:35
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-17 18:40
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 18:35
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.66%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 18:30
Marathon Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.40%EV -5.25%E -1.77%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 18:50
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.66%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-17 18:40
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-17 18:40
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -5.74%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-17 18:55
1xBet2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -6.10%E -2.35%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.19%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -2.88%E -0.945%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 18:50
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -6.46%E -2.50%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -7.02%E -2.41%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:35
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -6.46%E -2.50%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -8.12%E -2.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -7.02%E -2.41%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:35
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -7.55%E -2.96%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -1.29%E -0.417%K -0.615%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 18:50
Bovada2.54I 39.37%NM 36.25%EV -7.91%E -3.11%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.54%EV -9.89%E -3.49%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-17 18:39
BetUS2.54I 39.37%NM 36.25%EV -7.91%E -3.11%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.54%EV -9.89%E -3.49%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-17 18:40
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-17 18:30
Unibet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
TABtouch2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Unibet (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Unibet (NL)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
BetRivers2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Grosvenor2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Casumo2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
betPARX2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:10
ATG (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
Svenska Spel2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.29%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.25%E -3.25%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:15
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.08%E -3.18%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:50
Tipico (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.08%E -3.18%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-17 18:55
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-17 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-17 18:15
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-17 18:35
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.08%E -3.18%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-17 18:35
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.27%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-17 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.27%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-17 18:40
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.27%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-17 18:40
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -14.03%E -5.20%K -8.25%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-17 18:40
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -9.36%E -3.74%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -14.03%E -5.20%K -8.25%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-17 18:40
LiveScore Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 36.68%EV -10.09%E -4.07%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:15
Virgin Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 36.68%EV -10.09%E -4.07%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -5.89%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:15
Betclic (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 36.17%EV -10.45%E -4.23%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.68%EV -10.03%E -3.56%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.14%EV -11.48%E -4.13%K -6.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-17 18:32
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:33
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:50
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:49
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:50
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -4.48%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:50
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -6.07%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-17 18:50
LeoVegas2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -7.48%E -2.58%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -12.44%E -4.52%K -7.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 23:09
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 35.43%EV -11.17%E -4.56%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.56%EV -12.27%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.01%EV -16.26%E -6.18%K -9.97%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-17 18:40
Parions Sport (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -12.99%E -5.41%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -10.67%E -3.81%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-17 18:35
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -12.99%E -5.41%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.37%EV -13.86%E -5.13%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.21%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-17 18:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.50%EV -12.99%E -5.41%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.08%EV -20.24%E -8.10%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.43%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%17.4%2026-03-17 18:46
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 36.25%EV -13.71%E -5.76%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.93%EV -16.41%E -6.26%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.81%EV -10.84%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-17 18:39
NetBet (FR)2.37I 42.19%NM 36.25%EV -14.07%E -5.94%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 31.58%EV -13.22%E -4.86%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.17%EV -14.98%E -5.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-17 18:40
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 35.20%EV -16.61%E -7.22%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 31.75%EV -18.65%E -7.31%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 33.05%EV -21.99%E -8.97%K -15.16%G +0.000%23.5%2026-03-17 18:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%1.0%2026-03-17 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%1.0%2026-03-17 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.26%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%1.3%2026-03-17 18:55
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.26%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%1.3%2026-03-17 18:55
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 35.57%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.48%2.6%2026-03-17 18:55