Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.73
assuming max odds 2.30
assuming max odds 3.15
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sampdoria (Local): 27.20%; Monza (Visit): 41.98%; Draw: 30.81%. For Sampdoria (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.46%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.93%EV +1.46%E +0.392%K +0.536%G +0.008% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.05%EV -3.44%E -1.49%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.02%EV -6.94%E -2.30%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-17 18:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.42%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.34%EV -10.02%E -3.43%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.42%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.34%EV -10.02%E -3.43%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-17 18:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.19%EV -3.16%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.99%EV -6.80%E -3.06%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.82%EV -9.72%E -3.32%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 18:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -3.43%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.81%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.30%EV -2.94%E -0.932%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -3.43%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-17 18:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -3.43%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-17 18:13 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -3.43%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-17 18:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.83%EV -3.70%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -4.70%E -2.07%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.34%EV -6.63%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 18:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-17 18:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 18:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-17 18:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -3.44%E -1.49%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -2.94%E -0.932%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-17 18:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -8.47%E -3.89%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-17 18:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -8.47%E -3.89%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-17 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.43%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.76%EV -11.56%E -4.03%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-17 18:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -13.72%E -4.90%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-17 18:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.35%EV -13.93%E -6.80%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.12%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.81%EV -9.42%E -2.83%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.92%EV -12.67%E -6.09%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-17 18:08 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 18:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -11.83%E -5.63%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -15.26%E -5.55%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-17 18:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.82%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.60%EV -19.81%E -10.37%K -21.77%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.58%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-04-17 18:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 18:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.18%E -4.27%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.88%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.59%EV -11.83%E -5.63%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 31.53%EV -14.65%E -5.29%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-04-17 18:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-17 18:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.98%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-17 17:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -13.93%E -6.80%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-17 18:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -14.31%E -4.54%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-17 18:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -14.31%E -4.54%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.13%EV -8.47%E -3.89%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.40%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-17 17:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -15.67%E -5.06%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.18%EV -10.15%E -4.74%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-17 17:34 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 18:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 18:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 18:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.36% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.67% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.97% | 2.5% | 2026-04-17 18:20 |