La escuela de los momios

Sampdoria v Monza

Inicio: 2026-04-17 18:30 UTC

Final: Sampdoria 0–3 Monza

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sampdoria (Local)

Predicción 27.20%3.68momio equitativo
EV +1.46%
Ventaja +0.392%
Kelly +0.536%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.82%27.22%27.16%28.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.333.273.7332.26%30.02%30.53%26.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Monza (Visitante)

Predicción 41.98%2.38momio equitativo
EV -3.44%
Ventaja -1.49%
Kelly -2.64%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.29%41.97%42.07%44.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.192.202.3052.36%45.57%45.45%43.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.81%3.25momio equitativo
EV -2.94%
Ventaja -0.932%
Kelly -1.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.28%30.81%30.78%32.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.983.003.1536.36%33.53%33.33%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle3.73I 26.81%NM 25.93%EV +1.46%E +0.392%K +0.536%G +0.008%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.05%EV -3.44%E -1.49%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.02%EV -6.94%E -2.30%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-17 18:15
BetOnline.ag3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.42%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.34%EV -10.02%E -3.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 18:04
LowVig.ag3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.42%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.34%EV -10.02%E -3.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 18:05
Marathon Bet3.56I 28.09%NM 26.19%EV -3.16%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.99%EV -6.80%E -3.06%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.82%EV -9.72%E -3.32%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-17 18:25
Codere (IT)3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -3.43%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.81%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.30%EV -2.94%E -0.932%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-17 18:04
DraftKings3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -3.43%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 18:00
Bovada3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -3.43%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 18:13
BetUS3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -3.43%E -0.967%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 18:15
1xBet3.54I 28.25%NM 26.83%EV -3.70%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -4.70%E -2.07%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.34%EV -6.63%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 18:24
FanDuel3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 18:19
Fanatics3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-17 18:14
Tipico (DE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-17 18:00
Coolbet3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -3.44%E -1.49%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -2.94%E -0.932%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-17 18:05
BetMGM3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 18:05
NordicBet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -8.47%E -3.89%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 18:00
Betsson3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -8.47%E -3.89%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 18:00
SportsBet3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.43%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.76%EV -11.56%E -4.03%K -6.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-17 18:05
Paddy Power3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -13.72%E -4.90%K -7.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-17 18:19
Unibet (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.35%EV -13.93%E -6.80%K -13.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.12%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-17 18:04
Betclic (FR)3.33I 30.03%NM 26.81%EV -9.42%E -2.83%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.92%EV -12.67%E -6.09%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-17 18:08
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-17 18:00
888sport3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-17 18:00
Mr Green (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-17 17:59
888sport (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-17 18:00
Betway3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 18:04
Winamax (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -11.83%E -5.63%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-17 18:04
Sky Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -15.26%E -5.55%K -8.72%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-17 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 25.82%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.60%EV -19.81%E -10.37%K -21.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.58%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000%17.4%2026-04-17 18:05
theScore Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 18:05
Unibet (NL)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:30
Casumo3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:34
Unibet (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:30
BetRivers3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:30
TABtouch3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:30
Grosvenor3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:30
Unibet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:30
ATG (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:39
Svenska Spel3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:30
betPARX3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 17:30
PointsBet (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 18:04
Bet Victor3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-17 18:04
PlayUp3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.18%E -4.27%K -6.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-17 18:15
Ladbrokes (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-17 18:04
Coral3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-17 18:04
Neds3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-17 18:04
BoyleSports3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -9.73%E -4.53%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-17 18:04
NetBet (FR)3.25I 30.77%NM 26.88%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.59%EV -11.83%E -5.63%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.53%EV -14.65%E -5.29%K -8.27%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-17 18:15
betfred_uk3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -4.48%E -1.44%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-17 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.98%EV -6.38%E -2.86%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 17:34
Bet Right3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-17 18:04
LiveScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 17:30
Virgin Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 17:30
Winamax (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -13.93%E -6.80%K -13.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-17 18:00
Betr (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -14.31%E -4.54%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -7.63%E -3.47%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-17 18:04
LeoVegas3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -14.31%E -4.54%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.13%EV -8.47%E -3.89%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.40%EV -9.10%E -3.08%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-17 17:30
PMU (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -15.67%E -5.06%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.18%EV -10.15%E -4.74%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-17 17:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%0.9%2026-04-17 18:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%0.9%2026-04-17 18:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%0.9%2026-04-17 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%0.9%2026-04-17 18:24
Smarkets3.70I 27.03%NM 26.36%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.67%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.97%2.5%2026-04-17 18:20