Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.61
assuming max odds 5.90
assuming max odds 4.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palermo (Local): 60.00%; Padova (Visit): 17.40%; Draw: 22.60%. For Padova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.75. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.64%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV +2.64%E +0.448%K +0.539%G +0.014% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-18 14:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 08:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 08:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 08:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 08:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 08:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 08:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 08:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 08:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 08:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV +0.032%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.80%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV +0.032%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.39%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -0.838%E -0.147%K -0.178%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.51%EV -5.20%E -3.29%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.66I 17.67%NM 16.89%EV -1.53%E -0.271%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.60%EV -4.40%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-18 15:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.81%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.77%EV -3.45%E -0.621%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.42%EV -6.21%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-17 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-17 18:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-18 15:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-18 15:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-18 15:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-18 14:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -9.40%E -6.22%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-18 14:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-18 14:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.33%EV -12.40%E -8.49%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-16 08:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.33%EV -12.40%E -8.49%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-16 08:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.50%EV -13.00%E -8.96%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-16 08:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -13.60%E -9.44%K -30.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-16 08:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.32%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.15%EV -5.19%E -0.952%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -6.21%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-17 17:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.75%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.37%EV -6.06%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-18 14:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -4.60%E -2.89%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-18 13:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -4.00%E -2.50%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-18 08:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.45%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-18 14:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-18 15:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-17 17:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-17 18:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-18 14:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-18 14:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.34%EV -16.00%E -11.43%K -39.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.36%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.30%EV -12.99%E -3.37%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-09-16 08:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.07%EV -3.40%E -2.11%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.29%EV -9.54%E -1.83%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-18 08:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.95%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -11.28%E -2.21%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-18 08:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.95%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -11.28%E -2.21%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-18 08:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.54%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.28%EV -11.28%E -2.21%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.19%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-18 15:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-17 09:26 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-18 13:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -12.99%E -3.37%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-18 13:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-18 13:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-18 13:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-18 13:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-17 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.49%E -3.44%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-18 14:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.49%E -3.44%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-18 14:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.49%E -3.44%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-18 14:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 58.23%EV -9.40%E -6.22%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.51%EV -17.36%E -3.66%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 23.26%EV -14.57%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-18 08:13 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.39%EV -7.60%E -4.93%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -18.23%E -3.88%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-18 08:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 58.53%EV -12.40%E -8.49%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 18.38%EV -19.10%E -4.11%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.09%EV -16.38%E -4.43%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-09-18 13:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.30%EV -8.80%E -5.79%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -19.97%E -4.34%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.43%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-18 08:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42% | 1.7% | 2026-09-18 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42% | 1.7% | 2026-09-18 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42% | 1.7% | 2026-09-18 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42% | 1.7% | 2026-09-18 15:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42% | 1.7% | 2026-09-18 15:15 |