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Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
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Palermo v Padova

Início: 2026-09-19 13:02 UTC

Final: Palermo 2–1 Padova

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Palermo (Local)

Previsão 60.00%1.67odd justa
EV -3.40%
Vantagem -2.11%
Kelly -5.57%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.61

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
57.78%60.05%60.02%62.69%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.401.521.531.6171.43%65.68%65.36%62.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Padova (Visitante)

Previsão 17.40%5.75odd justa
EV +2.64%
Vantagem +0.448%
Kelly +0.539%
Crescimento +0.014%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.73%17.36%17.38%19.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.605.355.455.9021.74%18.71%18.35%16.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 22.60%4.42odd justa
EV -2.82%
Vantagem -0.655%
Kelly -0.854%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.58%22.58%22.60%23.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.704.054.004.3027.03%24.69%25.00%23.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Palermo (Local): 60.00%; Padova (Visitante): 17.40%; Empate: 22.60%. Para Padova (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.75. 12 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.90, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.64%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV +2.64%E +0.448%K +0.539%G +0.014%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-18 14:04
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:35
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV +0.032%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 14:05
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.80%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV +0.032%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 14:05
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.39%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -0.838%E -0.147%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 14:05
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.51%EV -5.20%E -3.29%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.66I 17.67%NM 16.89%EV -1.53%E -0.271%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.60%EV -4.40%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 15:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.81%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.77%EV -3.45%E -0.621%K -0.758%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.42%EV -6.21%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 17:55
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-17 18:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:29
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:05
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 14:09
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -9.40%E -6.22%K -18.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 14:05
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 14:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.33%EV -12.40%E -8.49%K -26.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-16 08:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.33%EV -12.40%E -8.49%K -26.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-16 08:30
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.50%EV -13.00%E -8.96%K -28.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-16 08:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -13.60%E -9.44%K -30.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-16 08:35
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.32%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.15%EV -5.19%E -0.952%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -6.21%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 17:58
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.75%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.37%EV -6.06%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 14:48
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -4.60%E -2.89%K -7.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 13:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -4.00%E -2.50%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 08:15
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.45%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 14:25
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 15:25
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-17 17:55
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-17 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 14:04
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-18 14:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.34%EV -16.00%E -11.43%K -39.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.36%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.30%EV -12.99%E -3.37%K -4.56%G +0.000%16.5%2026-09-16 08:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.07%EV -3.40%E -2.11%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.29%EV -9.54%E -1.83%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 08:20
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.95%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -11.28%E -2.21%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 08:15
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.95%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -11.28%E -2.21%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 08:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.54%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.28%EV -11.28%E -2.21%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.19%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 09:26
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 13:05
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -12.99%E -3.37%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-18 13:05
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 13:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 13:05
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-17 18:00
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.49%E -3.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.49%E -3.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 14:24
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.49%E -3.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.23%EV -9.40%E -6.22%K -18.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.51%EV -17.36%E -3.66%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.26%EV -14.57%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-18 08:13
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.39%EV -7.60%E -4.93%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -18.23%E -3.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-18 08:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 58.53%EV -12.40%E -8.49%K -26.95%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.38%EV -19.10%E -4.11%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.09%EV -16.38%E -4.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-18 13:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.30%EV -8.80%E -5.79%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -19.97%E -4.34%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.43%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 08:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:15
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:15