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Palermo v Padova

Inicio: 2026-09-19 13:02 UTC

Final: Palermo 2–1 Padova

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Palermo (Local)

Predicción 60.00%1.67momio equitativo
EV -3.40%
Ventaja -2.11%
Kelly -5.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.78%60.05%60.02%62.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.401.521.531.6171.43%65.68%65.36%62.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Padova (Visitante)

Predicción 17.40%5.75momio equitativo
EV +2.64%
Ventaja +0.448%
Kelly +0.539%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.73%17.36%17.38%19.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.605.355.455.9021.74%18.71%18.35%16.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.60%4.42momio equitativo
EV -2.82%
Ventaja -0.655%
Kelly -0.854%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.58%22.58%22.60%23.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.704.054.004.3027.03%24.69%25.00%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Palermo (Local): 60.00%; Padova (Visitante): 17.40%; Empate: 22.60%. Para Padova (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.75. 12 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.90, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.64%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV +2.64%E +0.448%K +0.539%G +0.014%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-18 14:04
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV +0.902%E +0.156%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 08:35
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV +0.032%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 14:05
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.80%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV +0.032%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 14:05
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.39%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -0.838%E -0.147%K -0.178%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 14:05
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.51%EV -5.20%E -3.29%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.66I 17.67%NM 16.89%EV -1.53%E -0.271%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.60%EV -4.40%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 15:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.81%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.77%EV -3.45%E -0.621%K -0.758%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.42%EV -6.21%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 17:55
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-17 18:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:29
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:05
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 14:09
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -9.40%E -6.22%K -18.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 14:05
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 14:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.33%EV -12.40%E -8.49%K -26.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-16 08:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.33%EV -12.40%E -8.49%K -26.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-16 08:30
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.50%EV -13.00%E -8.96%K -28.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-16 08:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -13.60%E -9.44%K -30.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -4.32%E -0.785%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-16 08:35
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.32%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.15%EV -5.19%E -0.952%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -6.21%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 17:58
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.75%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.37%EV -6.06%E -1.12%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 14:48
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -4.60%E -2.89%K -7.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 13:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -4.00%E -2.50%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 08:15
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.45%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 14:25
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 15:25
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-17 17:55
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-17 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 14:04
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-18 14:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.34%EV -16.00%E -11.43%K -39.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.36%EV -8.67%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.30%EV -12.99%E -3.37%K -4.56%G +0.000%16.5%2026-09-16 08:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.07%EV -3.40%E -2.11%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.29%EV -9.54%E -1.83%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 08:20
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.95%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -11.28%E -2.21%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 08:15
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.95%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -11.28%E -2.21%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 08:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.54%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.28%EV -11.28%E -2.21%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.19%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 09:26
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 13:05
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -12.99%E -3.37%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-18 13:05
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 13:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.86%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 13:05
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.00%E -6.66%K -19.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.02%E -2.60%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-17 18:00
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.49%E -3.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.49%E -3.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 14:24
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -7.00%E -4.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.49%E -3.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.23%EV -9.40%E -6.22%K -18.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.51%EV -17.36%E -3.66%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.26%EV -14.57%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-18 08:13
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.39%EV -7.60%E -4.93%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -18.23%E -3.88%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-18 08:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 58.53%EV -12.40%E -8.49%K -26.95%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.38%EV -19.10%E -4.11%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.09%EV -16.38%E -4.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-18 13:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.30%EV -8.80%E -5.79%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -19.97%E -4.34%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.43%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 08:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:15
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-09-18 15:15