Language:English
Padova v Spezia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Padova (Local)
Prediction 36.31%2.75fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.32%36.42%36.23%38.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.552.582.7044.44%39.25%38.76%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Spezia (Visit)
Prediction 30.98%3.23fair odd
EV +5.34%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +2.23%
Growth +0.119%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.99%31.00%31.06%33.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.922.903.4037.04%34.19%34.48%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.70%3.06fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -0.944%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.92%32.58%32.71%34.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.822.853.0040.82%35.51%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Padova (Local): 36.31%; Spezia (Visit): 30.98%; Draw: 32.70%. For Spezia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.34%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.38%EV -9.94%E -4.01%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV +5.34%E +1.57%K +2.23%G +0.119% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.63%EV -7.45%E -2.63%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.25%EV -3.04%E -1.14%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%EV -0.856%E -0.268%K -0.389%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.49%EV -5.49%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -0.856%E -0.268%K -0.389%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -3.95%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -3.95%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -3.95%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -10.06%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -3.95%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -11.70%E -4.33%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.95%E -0.723%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.04%EV -4.57%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.55%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.95%E -0.723%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.04%EV -4.57%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.55%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.94%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -5.50%E -1.80%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.23%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -5.50%E -1.80%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.48%EV -9.74%E -3.53%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -6.31%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -5.81%E -1.91%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.88%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.95%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -3.52%E -1.19%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -5.81%E -2.02%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -1.89%E -0.630%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -1.89%E -0.630%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -12.85%E -5.35%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.06%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.06%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.06%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -14.32%E -5.46%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.96%EV -6.31%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -7.67%E -2.57%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.90%EV -7.78%E -2.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.96%EV -6.31%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -7.67%E -2.57%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.90%EV -7.78%E -2.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -8.60%E -2.92%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.43%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.72%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -10.15%E -3.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.25%EV -5.81%E -2.02%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.15%E -3.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -10.15%E -3.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.15%E -3.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -10.06%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -14.66%E -6.24%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.15%E -3.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.83%EV -15.75%E -6.79%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.26%EV -10.15%E -3.50%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.91%EV -10.06%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -11.70%E -4.11%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -12.85%E -5.35%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.02%EV -11.70%E -4.11%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.15%EV -10.06%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-03-03 17:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.48%EV -16.48%E -7.16%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.24%EV -11.70%E -4.11%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.28%EV -12.68%E -4.75%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.63%EV -12.85%E -5.35%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.40%EV -13.25%E -4.73%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -10.06%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 36.23%EV -16.48%E -7.16%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.76%EV -13.25%E -4.73%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 34.01%EV -19.88%E -8.11%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 20.0% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 17:47 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.11%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.11%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 37.93%EV -18.29%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.03%EV -14.80%E -5.38%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.03%EV -10.06%E -3.66%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -4.49%E -1.71%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -16.35%E -6.05%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -8.43%E -3.01%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.60% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.95% | 0.9% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.60% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.95% | 0.9% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.71% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.58% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.71% | 0.9% | 2026-03-03 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.86% | 1.1% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.96% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.36% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.68% | 4.6% | 2026-03-03 18:01 |