Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Padova v Bari

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 14:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Padova (Local)

Prediction 45.93%2.18fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.57%45.80%45.91%47.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.012.022.1255.56%49.83%49.50%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bari (Visit)

Prediction 24.45%4.09fair odd
EV +4.38%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.64%24.45%24.48%26.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.733.704.2730.30%26.81%27.03%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.63%3.38fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.04%29.75%29.61%31.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.073.103.2537.04%32.60%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Padova (Local): 45.93%; Bari (Visit): 24.45%; Draw: 29.63%. For Bari (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.15%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.64%EV +4.38%E +1.03%K +1.34%G +0.059%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.21%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 13:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.30%EV -4.93%E -2.38%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV +0.229%E +0.056%K +0.074%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.33%EV -6.38%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-21 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.30%EV -4.93%E -2.38%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV +0.229%E +0.056%K +0.074%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.33%EV -6.38%E -2.02%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-21 13:59
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV +0.229%E +0.056%K +0.074%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 13:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.91%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -2.22%E -0.554%K -0.739%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -12.60%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:00
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -2.22%E -0.554%K -0.739%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -3.44%E -0.870%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -8.75%E -2.84%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 13:59
Bovada🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.66%EV -7.68%E -3.82%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%EV -3.44%E -0.870%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -12.60%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-21 13:59
BetUS🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.66%EV -7.68%E -3.82%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%EV -3.44%E -0.870%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -12.60%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-21 13:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.37%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%EV -4.66%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -3.72%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 14:00
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.56%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -4.66%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 14:00
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -5.88%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 14:00
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.87%EV -4.93%E -2.38%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.73%EV -6.13%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.40%EV -4.31%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 13:59
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.58%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.84%EV -11.82%E -6.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 14:00
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.66%EV -10.44%E -5.35%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.43%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.91%EV -14.68%E -5.10%K -7.81%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-21 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.09%EV -2.63%E -1.24%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -3.72%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 13:59
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 13:59
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 14:00
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:00
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.51%EV -10.44%E -5.35%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -14.68%E -5.10%K -7.81%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-21 14:00
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 14:00
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 13:51
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.22%E -3.58%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -10.77%E -2.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -10.77%E -2.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.09%EV -15.03%E -8.13%K -17.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.87%EV -10.77%E -2.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.04%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%14.8%2026-02-21 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 46.76%EV -15.49%E -8.42%K -18.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.57%EV -10.77%E -2.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.67%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.41%G +0.000%16.2%2026-02-21 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 13:59
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 13:59
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 13:59
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.14%EV -12.28%E -6.43%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.5%2026-02-21 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.15%EV -17.33%E -9.63%K -21.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.08%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.77%EV -20.01%E -7.41%K -11.77%G +0.000%20.4%2026-02-21 13:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.43%EV -13.20%E -6.98%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.51%EV -12.48%E -3.49%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.06%EV -10.53%E -3.49%K -5.21%G +0.000%14.0%2026-02-21 13:59
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -13.22%E -3.72%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-21 13:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.11%EV -12.74%E -6.70%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.68%EV -13.22%E -3.72%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-21 13:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -5.85%E -2.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -14.44%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 13:59
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.44%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-21 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.44%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-21 14:00
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.14%E -4.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.44%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-21 14:00
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -3.55%E -1.69%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -16.88%E -4.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.60%EV -12.28%E -6.43%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.82%EV -19.33%E -5.86%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.58%EV -14.68%E -5.10%K -7.81%G +0.000%17.4%2026-02-21 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87%1.2%2026-02-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87%1.2%2026-02-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87%1.2%2026-02-21 14:00
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 46.39%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.73%1.7%2026-02-21 14:00
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 46.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.30%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%2.2%2026-02-21 14:00