Language:English
Monza v US Catanzaro 1929
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Monza (Local)
Prediction 49.78%2.01fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.730%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.58%49.64%49.73%51.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.831.9858.82%54.29%54.64%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
US Catanzaro 1929 (Visit)
Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV +2.29%
Edge +0.532%
Kelly +0.694%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.41%24.04%23.80%26.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.863.904.3029.41%25.92%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.44%3.78fair odd
EV -0.862%
Edge -0.230%
Kelly -0.313%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.19%26.32%26.47%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.483.503.7533.33%28.73%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Monza (Local): 49.78%; US Catanzaro 1929 (Visit): 23.79%; Draw: 26.44%. For US Catanzaro 1929 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.82%EV -7.42%E -3.99%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.41%EV +2.29%E +0.532%K +0.694%G +0.016% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.77%EV -1.13%E -0.301%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-29 17:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.10%EV -3.93%E -2.04%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.19%EV -0.804%E -0.193%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.71%EV -4.30%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.98%EV -7.42%E -3.99%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 22.90%EV -1.52%E -0.367%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.12%EV -4.03%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 17:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -2.47%E -0.602%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -2.47%E -0.602%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.29%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.22%EV -3.66%E -0.903%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.61%EV -4.93%E -2.58%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -5.43%E -2.86%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-29 17:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -6.42%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-29 17:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.68%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.68%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.82%EV -9.41%E -5.17%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -9.91%E -5.47%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -9.91%E -5.47%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -9.91%E -5.47%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -9.91%E -5.47%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -9.91%E -5.47%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -9.91%E -5.47%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -9.91%E -5.47%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.76%EV -10.40%E -5.78%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -6.04%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.90%EV -10.90%E -6.09%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -6.04%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.90%EV -10.90%E -6.09%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -6.04%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -2.18%E -0.590%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -6.42%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -6.42%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.84%EV -11.90%E -6.72%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.66%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -8.42%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.67%EV -7.42%E -3.99%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-29 17:38 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-29 17:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-29 17:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-29 17:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-29 17:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-29 17:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.92%E -4.28%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-29 17:38 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -10.40%E -5.78%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.87%EV -10.90%E -6.09%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.64%EV -11.44%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.72%EV -13.89%E -8.03%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -11.44%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-29 17:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -12.89%E -7.37%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -9.41%E -5.17%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -11.98%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.12%EV -1.45%E -0.730%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -14.36%E -3.99%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -0.862%E -0.230%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-29 17:18 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -10.40%E -5.78%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -14.36%E -3.99%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-29 17:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.62%EV -10.40%E -5.78%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -14.36%E -3.99%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -20.69%E -6.90%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-05-29 17:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 49.91%EV -15.38%E -9.05%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%EV -14.36%E -3.99%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.52%EV -15.40%E -4.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-05-29 17:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -2.94%E -1.51%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -15.55%E -4.38%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.83%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-29 17:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -2.94%E -1.51%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -16.74%E -4.78%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.83%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-29 17:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -16.74%E -4.78%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-29 17:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -4.93%E -2.58%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -16.74%E -4.78%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-29 17:18 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -5.43%E -2.86%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -19.12%E -5.62%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-29 17:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.32% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.15% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53% | 0.4% | 2026-05-29 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.45% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46% | 0.7% | 2026-05-29 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.45% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46% | 0.7% | 2026-05-29 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.45% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46% | 0.7% | 2026-05-29 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.28% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71% | 1.0% | 2026-05-29 17:50 |