Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.20
assuming max odds 3.81
assuming max odds 3.34
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Monza (Local): 43.67%; Palermo (Visit): 26.94%; Draw: 29.39%. For Palermo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.66%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.38%EV -4.81%E -2.21%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.39%EV +2.66%E +0.697%K +0.945%G +0.025% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.23%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-14 15:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.64%EV -6.56%E -3.06%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%EV +2.39%E +0.628%K +0.852%G +0.020% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.23%EV -7.13%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 15:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.64%EV -6.56%E -3.06%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%EV +2.39%E +0.628%K +0.852%G +0.020% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.23%EV -7.13%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 15:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.20%EV -7.87%E -3.73%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -8.30%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 16:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -9.18%E -4.41%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 16:07 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -9.18%E -4.41%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 16:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -14.77%E -5.09%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 15:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.35%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 16:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.77%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.81%EV -4.62%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.42%EV -1.84%E -0.549%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 16:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -3.94%E -1.79%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.91%EV -5.25%E -2.42%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 15:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -3.94%E -1.79%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 15:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-14 16:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-14 16:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-14 16:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -17.71%E -6.32%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-14 15:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.14%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -17.71%E -6.32%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-03-14 15:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -7.04%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 16:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-14 15:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-14 16:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-14 16:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -19.18%E -6.97%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-03-14 15:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -9.74%E -2.91%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.60%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -9.74%E -2.91%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 16:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 16:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-14 15:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-14 16:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -12.67%E -6.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-14 12:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.58%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 27.32%EV -11.89%E -3.64%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.10%EV -9.77%E -3.18%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-14 15:53 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%EV -4.81%E -2.21%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 16:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-14 15:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-14 15:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-14 15:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.05%EV -14.85%E -7.62%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.84%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.11%EV -13.30%E -4.51%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-03-14 16:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 43.02%EV -17.04%E -8.97%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 25.54%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 31.44%EV -23.58%E -9.07%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 22.3% | 2026-03-14 15:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -9.18%E -4.41%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -15.13%E -4.80%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.46%EV -12.67%E -6.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -16.47%E -5.31%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.50%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-03-14 12:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -12.67%E -6.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -16.47%E -5.31%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -15.35%E -5.33%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-03-14 16:09 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.18% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.37% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.45% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 16:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35% | 1.4% | 2026-03-14 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35% | 1.4% | 2026-03-14 15:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.27% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.30% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43% | 2.7% | 2026-03-14 16:10 |