La escuela de los momios

Monza v Palermo

Inicio: 2026-03-14 16:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Monza (Local)

Predicción 43.67%2.29momio equitativo
EV -3.94%
Ventaja -1.79%
Kelly -3.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.32%43.76%43.54%44.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.902.102.102.2052.63%47.68%47.62%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Palermo (Visitante)

Predicción 26.94%3.71momio equitativo
EV +2.66%
Ventaja +0.697%
Kelly +0.945%
Crecimiento +0.025%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.14%26.78%27.12%28.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.373.303.8132.26%29.65%30.30%26.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.39%3.40momio equitativo
EV -1.84%
Ventaja -0.549%
Kelly -0.784%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.70%29.47%29.34%31.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.603.113.163.3438.46%32.11%31.70%29.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.18I 45.87%NM 44.38%EV -4.81%E -2.21%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.39%EV +2.66%E +0.697%K +0.945%G +0.025%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.23%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 15:45
LowVig.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 44.64%EV -6.56%E -3.06%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%EV +2.39%E +0.628%K +0.852%G +0.020%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.23%EV -7.13%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 15:45
BetOnline.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 44.64%EV -6.56%E -3.06%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%EV +2.39%E +0.628%K +0.852%G +0.020%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.23%EV -7.13%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 15:45
Marathon Bet2.11I 47.39%NM 44.20%EV -7.87%E -3.73%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -8.30%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 16:00
Bovada2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -9.18%E -4.41%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 16:07
BetUS2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -9.18%E -4.41%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 16:05
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -14.77%E -5.09%K -7.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 15:29
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -3.00%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 12:05
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.35%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 16:00
1xBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.77%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.81%EV -4.62%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.42%EV -1.84%E -0.549%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 16:05
Codere (IT)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -3.94%E -1.79%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 12:05
Coolbet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.91%EV -5.25%E -2.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 15:34
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -3.94%E -1.79%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 15:15
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 16:05
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 16:05
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 16:05
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -17.71%E -6.32%K -9.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-14 15:29
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 43.14%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -17.71%E -6.32%K -9.84%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-14 15:30
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -7.04%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 12:05
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 12:05
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 16:05
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 15:35
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 16:00
PlayUp2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-14 16:00
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -19.18%E -6.97%K -10.96%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-14 15:30
Betsson2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -6.12%E -2.85%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -9.74%E -2.91%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 12:05
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 43.60%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -9.74%E -2.91%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 16:10
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 16:09
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 15:40
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 16:10
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -12.67%E -6.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-14 12:04
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.58%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.32%EV -11.89%E -3.64%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.10%EV -9.77%E -3.18%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-14 15:53
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%EV -4.81%E -2.21%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 16:09
Unibet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:24
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
Casumo2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
BetRivers2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
Grosvenor2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
betPARX2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.39%EV -7.43%E -3.50%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 15:20
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 12:05
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-14 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-14 15:55
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.49%E -5.11%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.43%E -3.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-14 15:55
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 15:20
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.30%E -3.95%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 15:20
Parions Sport (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.64%EV -12.67%E -6.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-14 12:05
NetBet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 44.05%EV -14.85%E -7.62%K -15.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.84%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.11%EV -13.30%E -4.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-14 16:10
PMU (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 43.02%EV -17.04%E -8.97%K -18.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.54%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.44%EV -23.58%E -9.07%K -14.74%G +0.000%22.3%2026-03-14 15:29
LeoVegas2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -9.18%E -4.41%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -15.13%E -4.80%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.42%E -2.36%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-14 15:20
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.46%EV -12.67%E -6.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -16.47%E -5.31%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.50%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-14 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -12.67%E -6.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -16.47%E -5.31%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -15.35%E -5.33%K -8.17%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-14 16:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.18%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.37%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.45%1.1%2026-03-14 16:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-03-14 16:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35%1.4%2026-03-14 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35%1.4%2026-03-14 15:55
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.27%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.30%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%2.7%2026-03-14 16:10