L’École des cotes

Modena v Juve Stabia

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-12 16:45 UTC

Score final : Modena 0–1 Juve Stabia

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Modena (Local)

Prévision 42.44%2.36cote équitable
EV -4.51%
Avantage -2.00%
Kelly -3.61%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.75%42.48%42.44%43.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.172.182.2550.00%46.19%45.87%44.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Juve Stabia (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.31%3.80cote équitable
EV +3.67%
Avantage +0.932%
Kelly +1.25%
Croissance +0.046%

avec la cote maximale 3.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.54%26.24%26.19%28.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.453.403.9432.26%28.96%29.41%25.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 31.25%3.20cote équitable
EV -3.13%
Avantage -1.01%
Kelly -1.49%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.08%31.28%31.37%32.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.752.962.983.1036.36%33.84%33.56%32.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.22I 45.05%NM 43.55%EV -5.78%E -2.61%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.54%EV +3.67%E +0.932%K +1.25%G +0.046%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.91%EV -5.32%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-12 16:41
Marathon Bet2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -5.78%E -2.61%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.07%EV +1.04%E +0.271%K +0.367%G +0.004%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.56%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-12 16:40
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -0.011%E -0.003%K -0.004%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -9.38%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 15:58
Bovada2.12I 47.17%NM 43.55%EV -10.03%E -4.73%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -1.33%E -0.354%K -0.482%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.38%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 16:41
LowVig.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 42.46%EV -5.78%E -2.61%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.64%E -0.714%K -0.979%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.06%EV -8.13%E -2.77%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-12 16:36
BetOnline.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 42.46%EV -5.78%E -2.61%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.64%E -0.714%K -0.979%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.06%EV -8.13%E -2.77%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-12 16:35
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -2.64%E -0.714%K -0.979%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-12 16:25
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -3.96%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-12 16:40
1xBet2.21I 45.25%NM 43.01%EV -6.21%E -2.81%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.33%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -3.13%E -1.01%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-12 16:40
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -3.13%E -1.01%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-12 16:30
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-12 13:19
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-12 16:05
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-12 15:10
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -3.13%E -1.01%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 16:10
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.47%EV -7.48%E -3.43%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -6.88%E -2.31%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-12 13:19
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.47%EV -7.48%E -3.43%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -6.88%E -2.31%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-12 13:20
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.38%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-12 16:40
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.38%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-12 16:40
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.38%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-12 16:40
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.38%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-12 16:41
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.38%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-12 16:26
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -14.07%E -5.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-12 16:00
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -7.82%E -2.65%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-12 16:15
BetRivers2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -7.48%E -3.43%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-12 16:05
ATG (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -7.48%E -3.43%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-12 16:00
Svenska Spel2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -7.48%E -3.43%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-12 16:05
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-12 16:11
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-12 13:34
Unibet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.56%EV -7.91%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 16:00
Casumo2.17I 46.08%NM 42.56%EV -7.91%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 16:05
Unibet (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.56%EV -7.91%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 16:05
Grosvenor2.17I 46.08%NM 42.56%EV -7.91%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 16:00
TABtouch2.17I 46.08%NM 42.56%EV -7.91%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 16:00
Unibet (NL)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.56%EV -7.91%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 16:05
betPARX2.17I 46.08%NM 42.56%EV -7.91%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 16:00
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 42.85%EV -11.72%E -5.64%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.94%EV -10.01%E -3.48%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-12 16:19
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -11.85%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -7.82%E -2.65%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-12 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.40%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -11.85%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-12 16:00
Virgin Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -11.85%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-12 16:05
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -11.85%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-12 16:05
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -11.85%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-12 13:20
NetBet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.52%EV -13.00%E -6.34%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.02%EV -11.85%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.47%EV -13.45%E -4.85%K -7.60%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-12 16:30
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -15.12%E -7.56%K -15.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -11.85%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.53%EV -10.95%E -3.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-12 16:16
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.26%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-12 16:10
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -7.82%E -2.65%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-12 16:10
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 42.35%EV -10.03%E -4.73%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -7.82%E -2.65%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-12 16:05
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.43%EV -12.51%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-12 16:06
PMU (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 42.54%EV -12.15%E -5.87%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -14.48%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -9.38%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-12 16:00
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -13.00%E -6.34%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -14.48%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -9.38%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-12 13:19
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.01%E -3.48%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-12 16:15
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.32%E -3.60%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-12 16:20
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.32%E -3.60%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-12 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.97%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.75%EV -18.43%E -5.95%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.28%EV -14.07%E -5.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%16.2%2026-05-12 14:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-05-12 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%1.3%2026-05-12 16:21
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%1.3%2026-05-12 16:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%1.3%2026-05-12 16:30
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 43.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.83%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.16%2.0%2026-05-12 16:41