Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.39
assuming max odds 3.50
assuming max odds 3.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mantova (Local): 40.74%; Sampdoria (Visit): 29.71%; Draw: 29.55%. For Sampdoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.99%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -13.63%E -6.43%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +3.99%E +1.14%K +1.60%G +0.064% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 14:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -13.63%E -6.43%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +3.99%E +1.14%K +1.60%G +0.064% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 14:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -13.63%E -6.43%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +3.99%E +1.14%K +1.60%G +0.064% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 14:16 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -13.63%E -6.43%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +3.99%E +1.14%K +1.60%G +0.064% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 14:16 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -13.63%E -6.43%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +3.99%E +1.14%K +1.60%G +0.064% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 14:16 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -13.63%E -6.43%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +3.99%E +1.14%K +1.60%G +0.064% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 14:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -13.63%E -6.43%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +3.99%E +1.14%K +1.60%G +0.064% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 14:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -13.63%E -6.43%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +3.99%E +1.14%K +1.60%G +0.064% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 14:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -13.63%E -6.43%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV +3.99%E +1.14%K +1.60%G +0.064% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 14:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.25%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.47%EV +2.80%E +0.811%K +1.14%G +0.032% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.27%EV -7.22%E -2.30%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -16.08%E -7.81%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -0.464%E -0.138%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-13 14:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.78%EV -16.49%E -8.04%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%EV -0.464%E -0.138%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.43%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-13 14:16 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.78%EV -16.49%E -8.04%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%EV -0.464%E -0.138%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.43%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-13 14:16 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.54%EV -2.63%E -1.10%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.36%EV -1.95%E -0.591%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.09%EV -4.85%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.50%EV -6.71%E -2.93%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -1.95%E -0.591%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.70%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 09:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.72%EV -16.89%E -8.28%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -1.95%E -0.591%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-13 14:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -3.43%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-13 09:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-13 14:51 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -4.26%E -1.81%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 14:56 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.29%EV -9.56%E -4.31%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.06%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-13 09:21 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.29%EV -9.56%E -4.31%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.06%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-13 09:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 43.83%EV -20.56%E -10.54%K -21.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.71%EV -4.92%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.47%EV -14.31%E -4.93%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-09-13 14:16 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.32%EV -4.26%E -1.81%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -6.41%E -2.03%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-13 15:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -4.26%E -1.81%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.41%E -2.03%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 15:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.53%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.41%E -2.03%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -7.81%E -2.50%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 15:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.41%E -2.03%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-13 15:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -4.26%E -1.81%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.49%E -0.754%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -3.04%E -1.28%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-13 14:51 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -3.04%E -1.28%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-13 14:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-13 14:51 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -12.83%E -4.35%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-13 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -14.90%E -5.17%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-13 14:51 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -14.90%E -5.17%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -12.41%E -5.77%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -6.92%E -2.20%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-13 09:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -16.49%E -8.04%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -7.89%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-13 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.82%EV -14.45%E -6.88%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 28.61%EV -8.78%E -2.86%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.57%EV -12.24%E -4.12%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-13 14:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.69%EV -12.41%E -5.77%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -9.38%E -3.07%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-13 09:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.86%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.86%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 15:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.86%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 15:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -7.12%E -3.12%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -10.86%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-13 14:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -10.86%E -3.62%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -14.90%E -5.17%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.48%EV -12.41%E -5.77%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -12.35%E -4.19%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -14.31%E -4.93%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-09-13 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -13.83%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-13 15:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -13.83%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-13 15:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -13.83%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-13 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -13.83%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-13 15:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -13.83%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -6.92%E -2.20%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -13.83%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -13.83%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -13.83%E -4.77%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -14.43%E -5.01%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.04%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.59%EV -14.43%E -5.01%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-13 14:51 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.74% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.74% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.74% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.74% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.56% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |