Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.00
assuming max odds 4.34
assuming max odds 3.60
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mantova (Local): 48.79%; Empoli (Visit): 23.55%; Draw: 27.66%. For Empoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.22%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.52%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.25%EV +2.22%E +0.510%K +0.663%G +0.015% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.23%EV -5.40%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -1.08%E -0.258%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -3.44%E -0.838%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 16:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.74%EV -7.79%E -4.12%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -3.44%E -0.838%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -8.28%E -4.41%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.01%EV -4.61%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.49%EV -6.33%E -3.30%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.52%EV -4.85%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.99%EV -2.63%E -0.747%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.84%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-30 16:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -8.77%E -4.69%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -8.77%E -4.69%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -8.77%E -4.69%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-30 16:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -8.77%E -4.69%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -8.77%E -4.69%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:18 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -7.31%E -3.85%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-30 16:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -9.75%E -5.27%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -14.25%E -4.60%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.86%EV -9.26%E -4.98%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 23.42%EV -8.62%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 27.71%EV -9.27%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -9.33%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -0.416%E -0.116%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 16:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-30 16:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -11.68%E -3.11%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.95%EV -9.26%E -4.98%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -11.68%E -3.11%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%EV -7.31%E -3.85%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -11.68%E -3.11%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.96%EV -12.19%E -6.77%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.50%EV -11.68%E -3.11%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-30 16:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.59%EV -13.65%E -7.71%K -17.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.41%EV -11.68%E -3.11%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.03%EV -13.16%E -7.39%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.27%EV -11.68%E -3.11%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.70%EV -12.86%E -4.08%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -8.77%E -4.69%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.75%E -5.27%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.75%E -5.27%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -9.75%E -5.27%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.96%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.70%EV -10.23%E -5.56%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.55%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54%EV -7.31%E -3.85%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -15.21%E -4.23%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.43%E -1.21%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.43%E -1.21%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.43%E -1.21%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.43%E -1.21%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.43%E -1.21%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.43%E -1.21%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.43%E -1.21%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.43%E -1.21%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:28 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.43%E -1.21%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.18%E -0.909%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.65%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -19.92%E -5.86%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.40%EV -6.33%E -3.30%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.60%EV -21.10%E -6.30%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.53%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -21.10%E -6.30%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.53%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -21.10%E -6.30%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -8.71%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.65%EV -10.72%E -5.86%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.68%EV -24.63%E -7.70%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.68%EV -11.48%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.42% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.71% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 0.4% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |