Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juve Stabia v Cesena FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 18:30 UTC

Final: Juve Stabia 1–1 Cesena FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juve Stabia (Local)

Prediction 41.59%2.40fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.16%41.64%41.58%42.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.192.202.3150.00%45.59%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cesena FC (Visit)

Prediction 29.71%3.37fair odd
EV -0.770%
Edge -0.231%
Kelly -0.329%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.32%29.68%29.77%31.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.103.103.3434.72%32.25%32.26%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.70%3.48fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.714%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.68%28.68%28.65%29.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.253.4033.33%31.21%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Juve Stabia (Local): 41.59%; Cesena FC (Visit): 29.71%; Draw: 28.70%. For Cesena FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.34, with an expected value of -0.770%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.92%EV -3.92%E -1.70%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.99%EV -0.770%E -0.231%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.08%EV -4.44%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-18 15:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.34%E -1.89%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 05:15
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -4.34%E -1.89%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.43%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-15 09:04
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.20%EV -4.34%E -1.89%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -6.41%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 04:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -4.34%E -1.89%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-14 22:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -5.17%E -2.27%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.41%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 15:24
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -5.17%E -2.27%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.41%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 15:25
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 05:11
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 12:04
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 12:05
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 06:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-15 09:05
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -12.36%E -4.19%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 15:30
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -14.44%E -5.01%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 15:30
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.88%EV -7.25%E -3.25%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.46%EV -5.82%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.65%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 15:25
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.11%EV -7.66%E -3.45%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.44%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.44%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-17 10:01
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.11%EV -7.66%E -3.45%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.44%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.44%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-17 05:11
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -1.96%E -0.593%K -0.852%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.17%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 12:03
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 08:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-18 07:30
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-18 15:23
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-18 15:23
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 09:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 09:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 09:05
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.17%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-15 09:05
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -9.60%E -3.05%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-18 09:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 15:28
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 04:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 04:19
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.50%E -3.86%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 04:20
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:45
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:45
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:45
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:46
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:46
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.44%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.30%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:45
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.14%EV -9.33%E -4.28%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -9.60%E -3.05%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 12:05
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 12:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -8.17%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-17 05:10
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.91%E -4.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-18 12:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.47%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -12.36%E -4.19%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -9.60%E -3.05%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-17 05:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.23%EV -11.82%E -5.58%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.16%EV -8.79%E -2.86%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.60%EV -10.17%E -3.25%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 06:35
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -9.60%E -3.05%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -9.60%E -3.05%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 17:46
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -9.60%E -3.05%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 17:46
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -13.91%E -4.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-18 13:45
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.55%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.30%EV -14.44%E -5.01%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.15%EV -11.04%E -3.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-18 05:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.89%EV -13.49%E -6.48%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -9.60%E -3.05%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 17:46
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.65%EV -16.82%E -8.41%K -16.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.92%EV -12.36%E -4.19%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.43%EV -13.91%E -4.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%17.2%2026-09-18 01:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.65%EV -16.82%E -8.41%K -16.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.92%EV -12.36%E -4.19%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.43%EV -13.91%E -4.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%17.2%2026-09-12 17:46
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-18 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-18 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-18 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-18 14:55
Matchbook◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-18 14:55