Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.44
assuming max odds 7.75
assuming max odds 5.16
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frosinone (Local): 67.22%; Padova (Visit): 13.73%; Draw: 19.05%. For Padova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.28. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.41%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.25%EV +6.41%E +0.827%K +0.950%G +0.061% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -4.76%E -0.952%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 15:13 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +2.98%E +0.397%K +0.458%G +0.014% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.52%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -10.60%E -7.97%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV +2.98%E +0.397%K +0.458%G +0.014% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -4.76%E -0.952%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -10.60%E -7.97%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV +2.98%E +0.397%K +0.458%G +0.014% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -8.57%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.21%EV -5.22%E -3.70%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.31I 13.68%NM 13.16%EV +0.368%E +0.050%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 5.16I 19.38%NM 18.64%EV -1.71%E -0.332%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.87%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.38%EV -2.52%E -0.354%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 18.74%EV -3.43%E -0.676%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.41%EV -5.22%E -3.70%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -4.76%E -0.952%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.41%EV -5.22%E -3.70%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -4.76%E -0.952%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.76%E -0.952%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -7.91%E -5.77%K -21.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.76%E -0.952%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -9.25%E -6.85%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -6.66%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.52%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -10.60%E -7.97%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -9.52%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -10.60%E -7.97%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -3.89%E -0.555%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -9.52%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.56%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.95I 14.39%NM 13.41%EV -4.57%E -0.658%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -6.66%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.08%EV -3.87%E -2.71%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.11%EV -6.63%E -0.976%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.81%EV -2.85%E -0.560%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.08%EV -3.87%E -2.71%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.11%EV -6.63%E -0.976%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.81%EV -2.85%E -0.560%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -7.32%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.96%EV -9.25%E -6.85%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.39%EV -7.32%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -7.91%E -5.77%K -21.37%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.80%EV -8.01%E -1.20%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.68%EV -5.71%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -7.91%E -5.77%K -21.37%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.80%EV -8.01%E -1.20%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.68%EV -5.71%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.76%E -0.952%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.81%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.01%EV -7.62%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:12 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.47%E -2.23%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -10.60%E -7.97%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -10.75%E -1.65%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.98%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -12.13%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.98%EV -7.23%E -5.24%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -12.13%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.63%EV -9.92%E -7.41%K -29.19%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.17%EV -13.50%E -2.14%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.20%EV -11.43%E -2.46%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-05 15:13 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.16%EV -12.61%E -9.70%K -42.04%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 13.86%EV -13.50%E -2.14%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.98%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.32%EV -14.19%E -2.27%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.25%EV -9.25%E -6.85%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.31%EV -14.19%E -2.27%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-05 15:12 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 65.78%EV -10.60%E -7.97%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.34%EV -16.25%E -2.66%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.88%EV -16.19%E -3.68%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -3.20%E -2.22%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -17.62%E -2.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -17.62%E -2.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -9.52%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -17.62%E -2.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-05 15:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -17.62%E -2.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -17.62%E -2.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -17.62%E -2.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 64.34%EV -10.60%E -7.97%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.26%EV -17.62%E -2.94%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.39%EV -23.81%E -5.95%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.07%EV -5.22%E -3.70%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.85%EV -21.74%E -3.81%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -14.28%E -3.17%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -5.22%E -3.70%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -25.86%E -4.79%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -18.09%E -4.21%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.02% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.41% | 0.6% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36% | 0.8% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36% | 0.8% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.98% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.75% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.27% | 1.3% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.54% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.96% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.50% | 2.0% | 2026-04-05 15:15 |