The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Napoli v Frosinone

2026-10-10 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Napoli (Local)

Prediction 66.87%1.50fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -6.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.68%66.94%66.92%68.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.401.401.4576.34%71.35%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frosinone (Visit)

Prediction 13.32%7.51fair odd
EV +3.88%
Edge +0.498%
Kelly +0.571%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 7.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.07%13.37%13.29%14.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.967.007.8017.24%14.37%14.29%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.82%5.05fair odd
EV +3.05%
Edge +0.586%
Kelly +0.725%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.12%19.68%19.80%21.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.614.605.2023.81%21.68%21.74%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Napoli (Local): 66.87%; Frosinone (Visit): 13.32%; Draw: 19.82%. For Frosinone (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.51. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.80, producing a positive expected value of +3.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.24%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.07%EV +3.88%E +0.498%K +0.571%G +0.022%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.69%EV -9.84%E -2.16%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 14:35
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.79%EV -3.05%E -2.10%K -6.77%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.93%EV +1.22%E +0.160%K +0.185%G +0.002%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%EV +1.06%E +0.209%K +0.259%G +0.003%1.7%2026-09-16 14:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.89%EV -4.38%E -3.06%K -10.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.75%EV -0.113%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.35%EV -6.86%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-16 13:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.89%EV -4.38%E -3.06%K -10.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.75%EV -0.113%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.35%EV -6.86%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-16 13:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.89%EV -4.38%E -3.06%K -10.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.75%EV -0.113%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.35%EV -6.86%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-16 13:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.89%EV -4.38%E -3.06%K -10.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.75%EV -0.113%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.35%EV -6.86%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-16 13:30
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.89%EV -4.38%E -3.06%K -10.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.75%EV -0.113%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.35%EV -6.86%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-16 13:35
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -0.113%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -0.918%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-16 14:46
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.78%EV -5.72%E -4.06%K -13.95%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.91%EV -1.45%E -0.195%K -0.226%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.31%EV -1.91%E -0.386%K -0.483%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-16 14:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -3.44%E -0.475%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -5.87%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-16 14:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.05%E -3.56%K -12.03%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.21%EV -4.11%E -0.571%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.81%EV -4.88%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-16 14:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -8.39%E -6.13%K -22.69%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.09%EV -4.11%E -0.571%K -0.663%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV +3.05%E +0.586%K +0.725%G +0.022%6.1%2026-09-16 19:40
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.38%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%7.06I 14.16%NM 13.36%EV -5.97%E -0.846%K -0.986%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -2.90%E -0.592%K -0.743%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 14:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -5.05%E -3.56%K -12.03%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -6.77%E -0.968%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -10.83%E -2.41%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 14:30
Bally Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.02%EV -5.72%E -4.06%K -13.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -6.77%E -0.968%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -10.83%E -2.41%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 13:30
betPARX🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.02%EV -5.72%E -4.06%K -13.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -6.77%E -0.968%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -10.83%E -2.41%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 13:30
BetRivers🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.02%EV -5.72%E -4.06%K -13.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -6.77%E -0.968%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -10.83%E -2.41%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.39%EV -5.72%E -4.06%K -13.95%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -10.10%E -1.50%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -12.81%E -2.91%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 13:30
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.55%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.60%EV -10.10%E -1.50%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -12.81%E -2.91%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-16 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.55%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.60%EV -10.10%E -1.50%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -12.81%E -2.91%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-16 13:30
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.55%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.60%EV -10.10%E -1.50%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -12.81%E -2.91%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-16 13:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 66.97%EV -12.41%E -9.47%K -40.02%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.09%EV -10.77%E -1.61%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.94%EV -12.81%E -2.91%K -3.77%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-16 14:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.85%EV -9.06%E -6.66%K -25.18%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.57%EV -12.10%E -1.83%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -13.80%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-16 14:44
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -8.84%E -1.92%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 14:41
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -8.84%E -1.92%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 15:16
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -8.84%E -1.92%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 15:16
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -8.84%E -1.92%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -8.84%E -1.92%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 15:16
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.24%EV -7.06%E -5.08%K -18.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.59%EV -6.86%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.89%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -14.79%E -3.44%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-16 13:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.89%EV -6.39%E -4.56%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -14.79%E -3.44%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-16 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.68%EV -11.07%E -8.32%K -33.54%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 14.83%EV -22.75%E -3.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.48%EV -16.77%E -3.99%K -5.24%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-16 14:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.33I 75.19%NM 64.19%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.34%17.1%2026-09-16 14:45