Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.15
assuming max odds 2.36
assuming max odds 3.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fiorentina (Local): 31.85%; Atalanta BC (Visit): 41.38%; Draw: 26.78%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.414%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%EV +0.312%E +0.099%K +0.145%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.67%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%EV +0.414%E +0.110%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 1.9% | 2026-05-18 09:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%EV +0.312%E +0.099%K +0.145%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.67%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%EV +0.414%E +0.110%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 1.9% | 2026-05-18 09:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%EV +0.312%E +0.099%K +0.145%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.67%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%EV +0.414%E +0.110%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 1.9% | 2026-05-18 09:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%EV +0.312%E +0.099%K +0.145%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.67%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%EV +0.414%E +0.110%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 1.9% | 2026-05-18 09:46 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -10.83%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV +0.414%E +0.110%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-05-18 08:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.85%EV -1.60%E -0.517%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.70%EV -2.35%E -0.995%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 26.45%EV -0.389%E -0.105%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-05-18 08:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -10.83%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -0.924%E -0.250%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-18 08:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.88%EV -3.83%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.68%EV -4.42%E -1.91%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.45%EV -2.53%E -0.695%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-18 08:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.83%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-18 08:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.83%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-18 08:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.83%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-18 08:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.83%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-18 10:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -10.83%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-18 08:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.86%EV -4.78%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.60%EV -5.24%E -2.29%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.54%EV -3.87%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-18 11:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.86%EV -4.78%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.60%EV -5.24%E -2.29%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.54%EV -3.87%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-18 11:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.86%EV -4.78%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.60%EV -5.24%E -2.29%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.54%EV -3.87%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-18 11:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.86%EV -4.78%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.60%EV -5.24%E -2.29%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.54%EV -3.87%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-18 12:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.84%EV -4.78%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.57%EV -5.24%E -2.29%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.59%EV -4.14%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-18 08:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -5.10%E -1.71%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.00%E -1.73%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-18 08:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -5.10%E -1.71%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.00%E -1.73%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-18 08:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-18 09:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -6.06%E -2.05%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-18 08:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -1.28%E -0.413%K -0.610%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-18 08:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-18 08:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-18 08:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-18 08:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.46%E -1.49%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-18 09:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.46%E -1.49%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-18 09:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.46%E -1.49%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-18 09:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -4.46%E -1.49%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-18 09:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -8.29%E -2.88%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-18 10:13 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -9.24%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-18 08:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -9.24%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-18 09:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.06%E -2.05%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-18 09:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.26%EV -5.42%E -1.83%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.82%EV -8.14%E -3.67%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-18 09:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -6.06%E -2.05%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -9.80%E -4.49%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-18 09:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -6.06%E -2.05%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -9.80%E -4.49%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-18 09:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -6.06%E -2.05%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -9.80%E -4.49%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-18 09:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -9.24%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-18 08:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.46%E -1.49%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-18 08:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.46%E -1.49%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-18 08:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.46%E -1.49%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-18 09:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-18 07:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-18 07:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-18 07:56 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-18 07:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -6.06%E -2.05%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-18 10:38 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -9.24%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-18 08:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -9.24%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-18 08:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.90%EV -10.21%E -4.71%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-18 09:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.65%E -2.64%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.01%EV -10.62%E -4.92%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-18 09:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -12.43%E -4.52%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -11.04%E -5.13%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-18 08:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -8.29%E -2.88%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.98%EV -11.45%E -5.35%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -10.30%E -3.07%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-18 09:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -8.29%E -2.88%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.98%EV -11.45%E -5.35%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -10.30%E -3.07%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-18 09:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -9.24%E -3.24%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.14%EV -13.11%E -6.24%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.81%EV -11.64%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-18 09:46 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -14.02%E -5.19%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.08%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -16.99%E -5.48%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-18 11:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.34% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.48% | 2.0% | 2026-05-18 09:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.28% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82% | 4.7% | 2026-05-18 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.31% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.66% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.03% | 5.3% | 2026-05-18 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.31% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.66% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.03% | 5.3% | 2026-05-18 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.31% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.66% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.03% | 5.3% | 2026-05-18 10:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.64% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14% | 6.3% | 2026-05-18 10:55 |