The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Como v Parma

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Como (Local)

Prediction 71.72%1.39fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -6.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.62%71.84%71.74%75.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.311.331.3683.33%76.24%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Parma (Visit)

Prediction 9.51%10.52fair odd
EV +23.63%
Edge +1.82%
Kelly +1.97%
Growth +0.465%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.24%9.38%9.46%10.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.669.5013.0012.50%10.36%10.53%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.77%5.33fair odd
EV +5.09%
Edge +0.909%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.73%18.78%18.80%21.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.894.805.6023.53%20.46%20.83%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Como (Local): 71.72%; Parma (Visit): 9.51%; Draw: 18.77%. For Parma (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.52. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.95%EV -7.48%E -5.79%K -25.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +23.63%E +1.82%K +1.97%G +0.465%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -10.86%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 16:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.04%EV -8.91%E -7.02%K -33.00%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +14.12%E +1.18%K +1.28%G +0.181%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.02%EV +5.09%E +0.909%K +1.11%G +0.056%4.9%2026-08-30 15:20
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 72.37%EV -2.45%E -1.80%K -6.82%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.95%EV +4.61%E +0.419%K +0.461%G +0.021%5.27I 18.98%NM 18.68%EV -1.10%E -0.210%K -0.259%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-31 14:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.56%EV -6.04%E -4.61%K -19.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.76%EV +4.61%E +0.419%K +0.461%G +0.021%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.68%EV +2.27%E +0.417%K +0.511%G +0.012%3.8%2026-09-06 09:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.02%EV -8.91%E -7.02%K -33.00%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV +4.61%E +0.419%K +0.461%G +0.021%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -6.17%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-31 11:00
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.32%EV -3.89%E -2.90%K -11.44%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -0.149%E -0.014%K -0.016%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.71%EV -14.62%E -3.21%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 18:25
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.32%EV -3.89%E -2.90%K -11.44%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -0.149%E -0.014%K -0.016%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.71%EV -14.62%E -3.21%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 18:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.31%EV -11.06%E -8.92%K -46.09%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.87%EV -2.53%E -0.246%K -0.273%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.82%EV -4.29%E -0.842%K -1.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 10:58
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.19%EV -7.48%E -5.79%K -25.78%G +0.000%10.09I 9.91%NM 9.36%EV -4.05%E -0.401%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.41I 18.48%NM 17.45%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.345%G +0.005%5.9%2026-09-06 09:45
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.48%EV -4.61%E -3.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -4.90%E -0.490%K -0.545%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -6.17%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 21:25
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.20%EV -4.61%E -3.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV -4.90%E -0.490%K -0.545%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -8.05%E -1.64%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 16:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.46%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.53%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -4.90%E -0.490%K -0.545%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -2.42%E -0.465%K -0.576%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 10:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.78%EV -13.93%E -11.61%K -69.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.85%EV -4.90%E -0.490%K -0.545%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.36%EV -4.29%E -0.842%K -1.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 11:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.29%EV -3.17%E -2.35%K -9.06%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.73%EV -7.28%E -0.747%K -0.832%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%EV -10.86%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 16:10
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.82%EV -3.17%E -2.35%K -9.06%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.06%EV -9.66%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -6.17%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 21:20
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.82%EV -3.17%E -2.35%K -9.06%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.06%EV -9.66%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -6.17%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 21:20
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.42%EV -4.61%E -3.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -9.66%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -10.86%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 16:10
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.43%EV -6.04%E -4.61%K -19.49%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -9.66%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.17%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 21:19
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.90%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -9.66%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -10.86%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 16:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -10.34%E -8.28%K -41.38%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -9.66%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV +3.21%E +0.584%K +0.714%G +0.023%8.7%2026-08-30 21:40
LeoVegas🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.06%EV -8.91%E -7.02%K -33.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -9.66%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -6.17%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-31 11:00
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.27%EV -2.45%E -1.80%K -6.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.62%EV -14.41%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.11%EV -6.17%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-01 06:03
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.87%EV -3.17%E -2.35%K -9.06%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -14.41%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -9.92%E -2.07%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 21:20
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -3.17%E -2.35%K -9.06%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -14.41%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -13.68%E -2.97%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 22:30
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.04%EV -4.61%E -3.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -14.41%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -10.86%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 07:25
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.53%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -14.41%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.17%E -1.23%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 00:40
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.50%EV -6.04%E -4.61%K -19.49%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -14.41%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.24%EV -9.92%E -2.07%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-31 16:10
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.80%EV -4.61%E -3.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -14.41%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.03%EV -18.37%E -4.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 13:05
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.53%EV -7.48%E -5.79%K -25.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -14.41%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -11.80%E -2.51%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 20:08
TAB🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.62%EV -5.32%E -4.03%K -16.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -14.41%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.31%EV -20.25%E -4.76%K -6.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-03 02:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.52%EV -3.17%E -2.35%K -9.06%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.73%EV -16.79%E -1.92%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -10.86%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 21:20
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.52%EV -3.17%E -2.35%K -9.06%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.73%EV -16.79%E -1.92%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -10.86%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 21:20
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.18%EV -4.61%E -3.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -19.17%E -2.26%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -13.68%E -2.97%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-01 06:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.18%EV -4.61%E -3.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -19.17%E -2.26%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -13.68%E -2.97%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-01 06:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.18%EV -4.61%E -3.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -19.17%E -2.26%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -13.68%E -2.97%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-01 06:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.26%EV -13.21%E -10.92%K -62.92%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.78%EV -23.92%E -2.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.96%EV -9.92%E -2.07%K -2.61%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-30 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 69.83%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.32%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%6.1%2026-08-31 14:50
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 67.68%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.80%17.3%2026-09-01 20:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 38.97%1.10I 90.91%NM 47.47%3.85I 25.97%NM 13.56%91.5%2026-09-02 09:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 38.97%1.10I 90.91%NM 47.47%3.85I 25.97%NM 13.56%91.5%2026-09-02 09:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 38.28%1.06I 94.34%NM 48.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 13.32%94.9%2026-09-02 09:35