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Sassuolo v Cesena FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sassuolo (Local)
Prediction 62.47%1.60fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -8.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.29%62.46%62.47%66.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.451.451.5372.46%68.87%68.97%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cesena FC (Visit)
Prediction 16.26%6.15fair odd
EV +5.69%
Edge +0.875%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.059%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.00%16.29%16.21%17.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.965.806.5018.87%16.78%17.24%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.27%4.70fair odd
EV +4.21%
Edge +0.860%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.045%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.29%21.26%21.32%22.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.504.504.9023.81%22.22%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sassuolo (Local): 62.47%; Cesena FC (Visit): 16.26%; Draw: 21.27%. For Cesena FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.15. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.69%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.14%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV +5.69%E +0.875%K +1.03%G +0.059% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV +4.21%E +0.860%K +1.08%G +0.045% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.14%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV +5.69%E +0.875%K +1.03%G +0.059% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV +4.21%E +0.860%K +1.08%G +0.045% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.14%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV +5.69%E +0.875%K +1.03%G +0.059% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV +4.21%E +0.860%K +1.08%G +0.045% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.14%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV +5.69%E +0.875%K +1.03%G +0.059% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV +4.21%E +0.860%K +1.08%G +0.045% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.14%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV +5.69%E +0.875%K +1.03%G +0.059% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV +4.21%E +0.860%K +1.08%G +0.045% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -10.04%E -6.97%K -22.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +5.69%E +0.875%K +1.03%G +0.059% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.17%E -0.471%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-17 16:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.05%EV -11.91%E -8.45%K -29.06%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV +5.69%E +0.875%K +1.03%G +0.059% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-17 16:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -12.54%E -8.96%K -31.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV +5.69%E +0.875%K +1.03%G +0.059% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -4.30%E -0.954%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-17 16:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -12.54%E -8.96%K -31.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV +5.69%E +0.875%K +1.03%G +0.059% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-17 16:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.62%EV -4.42%E -2.89%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.24I 16.03%NM 15.35%EV +1.46%E +0.234%K +0.279%G +0.004% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.03%EV -7.49%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-17 16:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.20%EV -12.54%E -8.96%K -31.35%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -0.814%E -0.133%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -2.17%E -0.471%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.20%EV -12.54%E -8.96%K -31.35%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -0.814%E -0.133%K -0.160%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -2.17%E -0.471%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -12.54%E -8.96%K -31.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -2.44%E -0.407%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV +1.02%E +0.215%K +0.273%G +0.003% | 9.1% | 2026-08-17 16:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -13.79%E -9.99%K -36.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -2.44%E -0.407%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -2.17%E -0.471%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -13.79%E -9.99%K -36.29%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -2.44%E -0.407%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -2.17%E -0.471%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.26%EV -6.92%E -4.64%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -5.69%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -2.17%E -0.471%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.21%EV -6.34%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 21.52%EV -7.70%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -6.50%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.30%E -0.954%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-17 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -6.50%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.30%E -0.954%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -7.54%E -5.10%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -6.50%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -2.17%E -0.471%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.01%EV -9.42%E -6.49%K -20.92%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -6.50%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-17 16:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.01%EV -9.42%E -6.49%K -20.92%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -6.50%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-17 16:28 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.51%EV -8.17%E -5.56%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.12%EV -7.32%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-17 16:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.29%EV -4.42%E -2.89%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-17 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-17 16:28 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-17 16:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-17 16:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-17 16:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-17 16:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -12.54%E -8.96%K -31.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -10.57%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-17 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.66%EV -9.42%E -6.49%K -20.92%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.14%EV -13.82%E -2.61%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.30%E -0.954%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-17 16:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.32% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-08-17 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53% | 1.0% | 2026-08-17 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.05% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.51% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44% | 1.4% | 2026-08-17 16:30 |