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Parma v Catania FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Parma (Local)
Prediction 67.27%1.49fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -8.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.30%67.26%67.43%69.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.381.4375.19%72.95%72.46%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Catania FC (Visit)
Prediction 11.77%8.50fair odd
EV +5.92%
Edge +0.658%
Kelly +0.741%
Growth +0.044%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.44%11.72%11.72%12.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.978.009.0014.29%12.55%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.96%4.77fair odd
EV +0.589%
Edge +0.123%
Kelly +0.155%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.66%21.02%20.84%22.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.494.504.8023.81%22.28%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Parma (Local): 67.27%; Catania FC (Visit): 11.77%; Draw: 20.96%. For Catania FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.50. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -8.51%E -6.25%K -23.63%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +5.92%E +0.658%K +0.741%G +0.044% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.60%E -0.783%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.07%EV -8.51%E -6.25%K -23.63%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV +0.040%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.79%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.90%EV -9.18%E -6.80%K -26.23%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV +0.040%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -9.89%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-14 16:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.55%EV -10.52%E -7.91%K -31.89%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV +0.040%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -7.79%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.55%EV -10.52%E -7.91%K -31.89%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV +0.040%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -7.79%E -1.77%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.32%EV -10.52%E -7.91%K -31.89%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.69%EV +0.040%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -9.26%E -2.14%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.03%EV -3.80%E -2.66%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 8.49I 11.78%NM 11.29%EV -0.077%E -0.009%K -0.010%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.68%EV -7.37%E -1.67%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.60%EV -7.16%E -5.19%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 8.06I 12.41%NM 11.57%EV -5.14%E -0.638%K -0.728%G +0.000% | 4.48I 22.32%NM 20.82%EV -6.12%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.16%E -5.19%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV +0.589%E +0.123%K +0.155%G +0.001% | 5.8% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.16%E -5.19%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV +0.589%E +0.123%K +0.155%G +0.001% | 5.8% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.16%E -5.19%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV +0.589%E +0.123%K +0.155%G +0.001% | 5.8% | 2026-08-14 15:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.16%E -5.19%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV +0.589%E +0.123%K +0.155%G +0.001% | 5.8% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.16%E -5.19%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV +0.589%E +0.123%K +0.155%G +0.001% | 5.8% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -8.51%E -6.25%K -23.63%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -0.459%E -0.097%K -0.122%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.16%E -5.19%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.30%EV -5.82%E -4.15%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.30%EV -5.82%E -4.15%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.30%EV -5.82%E -4.15%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.30%EV -5.82%E -4.15%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.84%E -0.731%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -11.98%E -2.85%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.39%EV -5.82%E -4.15%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.10%EV -8.20%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.60%E -0.783%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.20%EV -9.18%E -6.80%K -26.23%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.71%EV -8.79%E -1.13%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.10%EV -9.89%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-14 16:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -5.82%E -4.15%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.73%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -3.60%E -0.783%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -9.18%E -6.80%K -26.23%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -11.73%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 15:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -8.51%E -6.25%K -23.63%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -11.73%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -9.26%E -2.14%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 13:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.99%EV -9.18%E -6.80%K -26.23%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.99%EV -9.18%E -6.80%K -26.23%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-14 16:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.15%EV -9.85%E -7.35%K -28.98%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -17.61%E -2.52%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -5.70%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.11% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.11% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.11% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73% | 0.5% | 2026-08-14 16:00 |