Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fiorentina v Benevento

2026-08-14 19:15 UTC — Coppa Italia

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fiorentina (Local)

Prediction 74.51%1.34fair odd
EV -5.37%
Edge -4.23%
Kelly -19.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.29%74.51%74.58%76.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.241.241.2782.64%80.79%80.65%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benevento (Visit)

Prediction 8.46%11.82fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +0.125%
Kelly +0.136%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.68%8.45%8.46%10.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0011.0011.0012.0011.11%9.09%9.09%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.03%5.87fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +0.361%
Kelly +0.433%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.72%17.04%16.97%18.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.555.506.0020.00%18.03%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fiorentina (Local): 74.51%; Benevento (Visit): 8.46%; Draw: 17.03%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.87. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.00, producing a positive expected value of +2.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV +2.16%E +0.361%K +0.433%G +0.009%5.8%2026-08-13 09:49
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.07%EV -7.60%E -6.13%K -31.67%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV -2.73%E -0.237%K -0.260%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV +2.16%E +0.361%K +0.433%G +0.009%6.0%2026-08-13 09:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.07%EV -7.60%E -6.13%K -31.67%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV -2.73%E -0.237%K -0.260%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV +2.16%E +0.361%K +0.433%G +0.009%6.0%2026-08-13 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.07%EV -7.60%E -6.13%K -31.67%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV -2.73%E -0.237%K -0.260%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV +2.16%E +0.361%K +0.433%G +0.009%6.0%2026-08-13 09:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.07%EV -7.60%E -6.13%K -31.67%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV -2.73%E -0.237%K -0.260%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV +2.16%E +0.361%K +0.433%G +0.009%6.0%2026-08-13 09:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.07%EV -7.60%E -6.13%K -31.67%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV -2.73%E -0.237%K -0.260%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV +2.16%E +0.361%K +0.433%G +0.009%6.0%2026-08-13 09:50
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -7.60%E -6.13%K -31.67%G +0.000%11.45I 8.73%NM 8.19%EV -3.15%E -0.275%K -0.302%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -1.24%E -0.214%K -0.259%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-13 09:50
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -2.09%E -0.364%K -0.441%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-13 09:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -2.09%E -0.364%K -0.441%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-13 09:49
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.12%EV -7.60%E -6.13%K -31.67%G +0.000%11.10I 9.01%NM 8.39%EV -6.11%E -0.551%K -0.605%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.49%EV -3.80%E -0.672%K -0.816%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 09:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.50%EV -5.37%E -4.23%K -19.88%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV -4.65%E -0.830%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-13 09:50
Grosvenor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.96%EV -9.09%E -7.45%K -41.33%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.71%EV -11.19%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.33%EV -4.65%E -0.830%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-13 09:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.11%EV -9.84%E -8.13%K -46.84%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -11.19%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -4.65%E -0.830%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-13 09:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.11%EV -9.84%E -8.13%K -46.84%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -11.19%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -4.65%E -0.830%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-13 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.79%EV -9.84%E -8.13%K -46.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV -15.42%E -1.54%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -4.65%E -0.830%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-13 09:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.27%EV -5.37%E -4.23%K -19.88%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -6.35%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-13 09:49
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.11%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV +1.50%E +0.125%K +0.136%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -6.35%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-13 09:49
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.28%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -11.19%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -6.35%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-13 09:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -9.09%E -7.45%K -41.33%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +1.50%E +0.125%K +0.136%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -6.35%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-13 09:49
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -9.09%E -7.45%K -41.33%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +1.50%E +0.125%K +0.136%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -6.35%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-13 09:55
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -9.09%E -7.45%K -41.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.35%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-13 09:49
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -9.09%E -7.45%K -41.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.35%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-13 09:53
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -9.09%E -7.45%K -41.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.35%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-13 09:53
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.29%EV -8.35%E -6.79%K -36.29%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -23.88%E -2.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -8.05%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-13 09:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.10%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -9.76%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-13 13:04
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.36%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -15.42%E -1.54%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -10.61%E -2.02%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-13 09:50
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -14.86%E -2.97%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-13 09:49
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -14.86%E -2.97%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-13 09:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -14.86%E -2.97%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-13 09:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.86%E -5.49%K -27.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -14.86%E -2.97%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-13 09:50
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -9.09%E -7.45%K -41.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -6.96%E -0.633%K -0.696%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -14.86%E -2.97%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-13 13:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 75.94%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.14%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.92%3.7%2026-08-13 13:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 75.94%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.14%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.92%3.7%2026-08-13 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 75.94%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.14%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.92%3.7%2026-08-13 13:00

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