Language:English
Fiorentina v Benevento
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fiorentina (Local)
Prediction 73.26%1.37fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -3.67%
Kelly -15.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.36%73.24%73.41%76.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.261.251.3082.64%79.63%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Benevento (Visit)
Prediction 9.29%10.76fair odd
EV +6.84%
Edge +0.595%
Kelly +0.652%
Growth +0.045%
assuming max odds 11.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.25%9.27%9.19%11.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.3310.0011.5012.50%9.68%10.00%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.45%5.73fair odd
EV +4.71%
Edge +0.785%
Kelly +0.942%
Growth +0.044%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.47%17.48%17.40%19.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.445.506.0021.05%18.40%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fiorentina (Local): 73.26%; Benevento (Visit): 9.29%; Draw: 17.45%. For Benevento (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.76. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.37%EV -7.70%E -6.11%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +6.84%E +0.595%K +0.652%G +0.045% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.37%EV +1.22%E +0.210%K +0.254%G +0.003% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.93%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV +6.84%E +0.595%K +0.652%G +0.045% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV +4.71%E +0.785%K +0.942%G +0.044% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.93%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV +6.84%E +0.595%K +0.652%G +0.045% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV +4.71%E +0.785%K +0.942%G +0.044% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.93%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV +6.84%E +0.595%K +0.652%G +0.045% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV +4.71%E +0.785%K +0.942%G +0.044% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.93%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV +6.84%E +0.595%K +0.652%G +0.045% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV +4.71%E +0.785%K +0.942%G +0.044% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 11.02I 9.07%NM 8.70%EV +2.39%E +0.216%K +0.238%G +0.006% | 5.66I 17.67%NM 16.95%EV -1.23%E -0.217%K -0.263%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 19:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.97%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.68%EV +2.20%E +0.200%K +0.220%G +0.005% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -4.76%E -3.67%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +2.20%E +0.200%K +0.220%G +0.005% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -17.11%E -3.60%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -10.63%E -8.71%K -48.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +2.20%E +0.200%K +0.220%G +0.005% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV +4.71%E +0.785%K +0.942%G +0.044% | 7.7% | 2026-08-14 18:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.98%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +2.20%E +0.200%K +0.220%G +0.005% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -8.38%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -10.63%E -8.71%K -48.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV +2.20%E +0.200%K +0.220%G +0.005% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -10.63%E -8.71%K -48.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV +2.20%E +0.200%K +0.220%G +0.005% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -10.63%E -8.71%K -48.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV +2.20%E +0.200%K +0.220%G +0.005% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -12.74%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.48%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -7.51%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-14 19:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.26%EV -9.89%E -8.04%K -43.01%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-14 19:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.74%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.74%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 19:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.74%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 19:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.74%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 19:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -10.63%E -8.71%K -48.30%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -10.63%E -8.71%K -48.30%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.57%EV -11.36%E -9.39%K -54.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.57%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.61%EV -8.95%E -0.913%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -2.27%E -0.406%K -0.494%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 19:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -4.76%E -3.67%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -11.74%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -4.76%E -3.67%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -11.74%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -4.02%E -0.731%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.01%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -11.74%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -8.38%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.01%EV -8.43%E -6.74%K -33.71%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -11.74%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -8.38%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 19:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.99%EV -5.50%E -4.26%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -16.38%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -8.38%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.36%EV -6.23%E -4.87%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.26%EV -25.67%E -3.21%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -14.49%E -2.96%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.72% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.87% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41% | 1.6% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.72% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.87% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41% | 1.6% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.72% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.87% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41% | 1.6% | 2026-08-14 19:19 |