The School of Odds
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Atalanta BC v Lazio

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 19:00 UTC

Final: Atalanta BC 1–1 Lazio

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atalanta BC (Local)

Prediction 53.85%1.86fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.64%53.79%53.85%54.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.751.8259.88%57.36%57.14%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lazio (Visit)

Prediction 20.22%4.95fair odd
EV -0.541%
Edge -0.110%
Kelly -0.138%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.60%20.28%20.16%21.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.564.504.9223.81%21.94%22.22%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.93%3.86fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.732%
Kelly -0.999%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.05%25.93%25.99%27.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.573.603.7532.26%28.03%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atalanta BC (Local): 53.85%; Lazio (Visit): 20.22%; Draw: 25.93%. For Lazio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.92, with an expected value of -0.541%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.22%EV -1.99%E -1.09%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%EV -4.99%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -4.04%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.22%EV -1.99%E -1.09%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%EV -4.99%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -4.04%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 18:35
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.07%E -1.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-22 18:35
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.24%EV -3.61%E -2.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.73%EV -0.541%E -0.110%K -0.138%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.03%EV -3.27%E -0.875%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 18:49
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.95%EV -3.61%E -2.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.67%EV -0.743%E -0.151%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.38%EV -5.08%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-22 18:45
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.68%E -2.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-22 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.68%E -2.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-22 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.68%E -2.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-22 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -5.22%E -2.97%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -7.93%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -7.01%E -1.52%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.04%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 18:35
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -7.01%E -1.52%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.04%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.92%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%EV -3.98%E -0.837%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 18:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.99%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 18:35
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.14%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.93%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 18:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.14%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.93%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 18:35
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.82%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 18:30
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.82%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.82%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 18:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.82%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 18:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.68%EV -6.30%E -3.62%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.82%EV -2.97%E -0.618%K -0.781%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.51%EV -3.27%E -0.875%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 18:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -6.30%E -3.62%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -2.75%E -0.732%K -0.999%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.08%EV -6.30%E -3.62%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.00%EV -6.84%E -3.95%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.04%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 18:45
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%EV -6.84%E -3.95%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -3.98%E -0.837%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 18:44
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.84%E -3.95%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 18:49
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -6.84%E -3.95%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -12.47%E -2.88%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.85%EV -7.38%E -4.29%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -2.97%E -0.618%K -0.781%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -4.04%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 18:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.89%EV -7.38%E -4.29%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -11.05%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.04%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 18:34
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.66%EV -7.92%E -4.63%K -11.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -11.05%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.07%EV -7.92%E -4.63%K -11.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -11.05%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.53%E -3.05%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-22 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -8.45%E -4.97%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.01%E -1.52%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 18:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.10%EV -8.45%E -4.97%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -7.01%E -1.52%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -7.93%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-22 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.45%E -4.97%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -7.01%E -1.52%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-22 18:45
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -8.45%E -4.97%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -9.03%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-22 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.89%EV -8.45%E -4.97%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.67%EV -12.06%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.82%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-22 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.64%EV -10.07%E -6.03%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.53%EV -15.10%E -3.59%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.82%EV -19.60%E -6.32%K -9.34%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-22 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.34%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.45%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-04-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.34%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.45%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-04-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.15%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.12%0.7%2026-04-22 18:55